Xtreme Dynasty

NBA Picks 2/1/12

2012-02-01T16:07:00.000-08:00

I finished off the month with another positive night going 2-1. Was dead wrong on the Bobcats, but was spot on with the Kings & Grizzlies. Wish I did a moneyline play on them, but I wasn't around last night to do so. I am now a nice 20 games over .500, and over 40 units for the year. Lets hope this continues in Feb.

YTD 65-45-1
Totals 25-12
Moneyline 4-6
Units +42.1

Chicago -2 (2 units)
This is a big test for the 76ers tonight. i think they are a great story thus far this season, but kets be honest... they aren't in the Bulls/Heat class in the East.

Milwaukee +7 (2 units)
I'm riding the hot Bucks at home in this one. It wouldn't shock me to see them upset the Heat.

Toronto/Boston O172 (2 units)
This falls in my 10 pt range for totals. I capped the game tonight for 183.

Best of luck tonight!

NBA Picks 1/31/12

2012-01-31T04:31:00.000-08:00

The highlight of the night was the Blake Griffin dunk over Kendrick Perkins. If you haven't seen it yet, you must have not watched ESPN or any sports news show today. It was ridiculous. I had another winning night going 2-1 hitting my Bulls pick and the over in the Clippers/Thunder. I was about 40 pts off with my Twolves/Rokets game hahaha.

YTD 63-44-1
Totals 25-12
Moneyline 4-6
Units +39.3

Today's Picks

Memphis +2 (3 units)
I like Memphis at home, both teams play great at home. The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight and their first game of their current home stand vs the spurs last night. They will end the streak tonight with a W at home.

Charlotte +13.5 (2 units)
The Bobcats own the Lakers. It is really strange actually. They have won 7 of 10 straight up, and are 12-1 ATS in their past 13 matchups. I guess the Lakers can't get up for the Bobcats. I like the Lakers to win by 8.

Sacramento +8 (2 units)
The Warriors don't deserved to be favored by this much against anyone.

NBA Picks 1/30/12

2012-01-30T16:20:00.000-08:00

If Dwight Howard doesn't demand a trade this week after their piss poor week the Magic had, then it may be safe to say he wants to stay in Orlando....lol, no chance that happens, but obviously there is problems in Orlando, and they should get fixed sooner then later. Trade Dwight now, get what you can for him, before it's too late. The Magic cost me yesterday, but I was 2-0 with my totals going 2-1 for the day.

YTD 61-43-1
Totals 24-11
Moneyline 4-6
Units +36.5

Today's Picks

Chicago -9 (3 units)
I like the Bulls big tonight. i like the rebound game after the loss to the Heat. they win by 20.

Minnesota/Houston U198.5 (2 units)
I capped this game in the 96-90 range. When my plays are 10 points off, it is usually a play for me.

LA Clippers/Oklahoma City O198 (2 units)
Both teams can score. I think this goes over.

Best of luck today!

NBA Picks 1/29/12

2012-01-29T08:24:00.000-08:00

Perhaps I should take more days off. I was a perfect 2-0 last night picking up another 4 units. Due to travelling at work for the next 2 weeks, my picks may be limited.

YTD 59-42-1
Totals 22-11
Moneyline 4-6
Units +35.8

Today's picks

Orlando -3 (3 units)
It's tough backing a Magic team who scored 57 pts on Monday vs the Celtics in a loss, and then blew a 27 point lead at home, and only managed to score 8 points the whole 4th qtr, but I am backing them today.

LA Lakers/Minnesota O183 (2 units)
The Lakers just got embarrassed in Milwaukee last night. I think Kobe and co. come out strong and score some points vs the T-wolves. I like this game to be around 98-94.

LA Clippers/Denver O205 (2 units)
Denver can score with the best of them, and I think with CP3 back in action for the Clippers they will look to run.

Best of luck today!

NBA Picks 1/28/12

2012-01-28T17:48:00.000-08:00

I'm glad I didn't get in on the Orlando/Boston game last night. I thought it would be revenge for the Magic after their mid 50 point performance from Monday night. They were rocking and rolling early, but only scored 8 points in the 4th qtr which is ridiculous if you ask me. My one play of the night was the Clippers, and they covered, so the roller coaster ride continues. 1-0 for the night.

Didn't have any plays for Friday, but got some for tonight.

YTD 57-42-1
Totals 22-11
Moneyline 4-6
Units +31.8

Philly -13.5 (2 units)
Philly too good at home, and Detroit is Detroit.

Sacramento +9.5 (2 units)
I like the points in this one.

Who is the #2 WR taken in the 2012 fantasy draft?

2012-01-26T19:08:00.000-08:00

There is no debate in who is going to be the #1 WR taking in next year's draft. If you don't answer Calvin Johnson, you probably shouldn't be playing fantasy football. The real debate is with who should be the 2nd WR taken off the board.

This year the top 5 receivers in which I call standard scoring (1/2 pt per reception right in the middle) were Johnson, Wes Welker, Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz & Larry Fitzgerald.   This year it is going to be so hard to pick the #2 WR, I think you are almost better off going in another direction. I'd honestly consider drafting both Rob Gronkowski & Jimmy Graham before the next WR.   Lets break down the top WR's in the game.

Wes Welker - Welker is a free agent in the offseason. I fully expect the Patriots to make a halfway decent offer to him. Brady is going to want his security blanket back and I expect it to happen. Welker had a career year with 9 TD's this year.

Larry Fitzgerald - Fitz is as consistent as they come, back lack of a true QB worries me.

Andre Johnson - Arguably better then Calvin Johnson, but injury concerns always surround him it seems.

Then we have a bunch of tandem WR's.

Jordy Nelson/Greg Jennings - This is a coin toss on who will be more productive in 2012.

Victor Cruz/Hakeem Nicks - Speaking of coin tosses.   If Nicks stays healthy, Cruz won't be as productive.

Roddy White - The emergence of Julio Jones drops Roddy White's value a tad.

So this is how I break down my strategy. You have to look at what is going to be available to you in the later rounds. Do you flip a coin with one of these guys above or draft a different position? The #2 WR will probably be taken around the 10th-12th pick in most drafts, so for arguments sake lets say you have the 10th pick. You only have to wait 4 more picks until you pick again. Is there a real difference between Larry Fitzgerald & Victor Cruz. Not really. If you pass on a WR in both rounds, who do you think will be available in Rounds 3 & 4 to round out your team? In most leagues, by the time you get your pick in the 3rd round. I'd say that pretty much every team is going to have 2 RB's, as most leagues draft RB heavy. The WR's you are looking at in 3rd/4th will be guys like Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Miles Austin, Kenny Britt, AJ Green and who knows if anyone above falls.

I think this is the year to pass on WR's early and draft them later on. My strategy for this pick would be to draft one of the 3 elite QB's. Hope that one of the TE's falls to be in the 2nd. Then go WR/RB or WR/WR in rounds 3&4, and then just load up on RB's the rest of the draft. There is going to be plenty of players like Marshawn Lynch & Darren Sproles that come out of no where next season. If you are putting up 50 points a week with your QB/TE combo, and your second tier of WR's are the guys listed in the paragraph above, then you are going to be hard to beat. Could you see Vincent Jackson being the #2 WR next year? How about Dez Bryant, Kenny Britt or AJ Green. They all have the talent to take it to the next level.

So to answer this weeks question After Detroit's Calvin Johnson, who should be the next WR selected in 2012 fantasy football drafts? My answer is simple. I am not drafting one. I am going elsewhere with my pick. If I had to bet money on who I thought would go #2 in most drafts though, I'd put my money on Andre Johnson though. Johnson out of all the other WR's has the tools, and is in a great situation where he is going to get the majority of the balls thrown to him.

To see the other "experts" selections, check out The Daily Blitz. tomorrow.

NBA Picks 1/26/12

2012-01-26T04:12:00.000-08:00

Well my picks were looking good for the 1st half at least with Miami/Houston both covering, but they both blew it in the 2nd half. I guess this is just going to be a roller coaster ride all season. Luckily the Warriors won so I didn't go 0 for the night. I ended up 1-3.

YTD 56-42-1
Totals 22-11
Moneyline 4-6
Units +28.8

Only 1 play today...

LA Clippers -3(3 units)
I like the Clippers to come out angry after a tough loss to the Lakers last night. With CP3 back, this Clippers team is much different. I will take the home team with the small number.

Best of luck.

NBA Picks 1/25/12

2012-01-25T16:40:00.000-08:00

Well, I am finally back in the winners circle going 3-0 for the night yesterday. Picked up a nice 9 units. Seems odd that when Carmelo Anthony only scores 1 point, the Knicks play arguably their best game of the season. Melo and Amare just dont gel together. Howard for Amare will never go down though, as Amare is a health risk. Sorry Knicks fans.

YTD 55-39-1
Totals 22-10
Moneyline 4-6
Units +34.5

Miami -8 (3 units)
I like Miami with the relative small number here. They have been playing like dookie as of late. They shouldn't struggle with a team like Cleveland. Detroit is just plain awful though. If the Heat don't win by double digits I will be shocked.

Houston -5 (2 units)
Houston is 7-1 at home this season, and Milwaukee is just 2-8 on the road. I like the Rockets at home.

Toronto U89.5 (2 units)
I think this game will be low scoring somewhere around 88-80 Utah. Utah plays great at home, and their bigs will shut down the Raptors.

Golden St. -3 (2 units)
I guess I'm a sucker fore betting my Warriors, but I think they beat Portland tonight. Got a look ahead game for the Blazers with Suns coming into town after they got whooped by them earlier this year, plus Portland is just not the same team on the road as they are at home. Warriors fix mistakes that plagued them in the Grizzlies game and beat the Blazers.

Best of luck!

NBA Picks 1/24/12

2012-01-24T17:50:00.000-08:00

There is nothing worse then a loss like the Warriors had last night. The Warriors led by 16 going into the 4th qtr and they collapsed and were outscored 39-22 in the final frame to lose by 1. It was pretty disgusting.
I had my first push of the season with Phoenix. I did manage to go 3-2-1 for the night, but losing my big play hurts.

YTD 52-39-1
Totals 21-10
Moneyline 4-6
Units +25.5

Today's picks

Orlando +3 (3 units)
I like the Magic rebounding on the road after a terrible night at Boston. I think they could win outright, but I will take the points just in case.

NY Knicks/Charlotte U194 (3 units)
Too many points in this one. I think this game will be in the 80's.

Portland -6 (3 units)
I think the Grizzlies win streak ends tonight. I like the Blazers by double digits.

NBA Picks 1/23/12

2012-01-23T16:02:00.000-08:00

Well my first losing week of the season (8-13) is in the books, and I went out with a big bang on Sunday with a nice 0-2 day. Milwaukee & Indiana win those games maybe 1 or 2 times out of 10, and they both happened to win last night. The NBA is a strange league for sure. My NFL picks were 2-0, and my playoff record is now 8-2. I'm ready to kick this NBA losing streak though.

YTD 49-37
Totals 20-10
Moneyline 4-6
Units +27.3

Golden St. -1(4 units)
The Warriors finally have their big three back healthy. They are a better team then their record indicates. The Warriors lost their first game with Curry back the other night versus Indiana, but I think a second game with him back, the Warriors will beat Memphis.

Phoenix +6 (2 units)
No Dirk = trouble for the Mavericks. The Suns have won their last two on this road trip, and I think they can hang with the champs tonight. The Mavericks are in trouble. They need to make a move for the Nets Deron Williams.

Boston +6 (2 units)
Even without Rondo, I think the Celtics can hang with the Magic at home right?

Atlanta -1.5 (2 units)
I think there is a little let down factor after a nice road win at the Lakers last night for the Bucks. The Hawks are a better team, and should win this one.

San Antonio -4.5 O91 (2 units)
Spurs big in this one. Duncan might be back, but even without Duncan, I see the Spurs scoring over 91 in this one. I see an up tempo game here, even thought the Hornets should slow the pace down.

Best of luck today

NBA Picks 1/23/12

2012-01-22T11:27:00.000-08:00

It has been a pretty bad weekend with picks so far, going 1-3 yesterday. My only win was with the Chicago/Charlotte under. I put my Dallas play in before the news of Dirk Nowitzki missing the game. Those are the risks you take with early bets.

YTD 49-35
Totals 20-10
Moneyline 4-6
Units +33.9

There isn't too many games today, and with my weekend suckage, I have a small ticket today, but both 3 unit plays

Miami -9 (3 units)
Miami put a beaten on the 76ers last night, and now they face a Bucks team who is 1-8 on the road this season. I think the Heat win big in this one. I think the final is around 108-89.

LA Lakers -5.5 (3 units)
Indiana has been one of the surprise teams of the year, and the Lakers have been off to somewhat of a disappointing start, but give me Kobe and Lakers who are 9-1 at home and less then a 3 basket favorite.

Best of luck today

NBA Picks 1/21/12

2012-01-21T12:25:00.000-08:00

I'd like to go back and take a look at which days I do my best. Maybe I will go through the plays during the games tomorrow because it always seems that I have awful Fridays. It's important to go back and check to see where you are weak at, and improve those mistakes. I finished 1-2 on the night. Melo rebounded with a big scoring night like I predicted, too bad the rest of the team took a night off. I think Mike D'Antoni's time in New York is done. I really liked the Bulls last night, but previous commitments kept me from making a play on them since there was no line posted in the morning. It would have been a 2-2 night, but oh well. shit happens.

YTD 48-32
Totals 19-9
Moneyline 4-6
Units +38.5

Lets get on to the Saturday action...

Chicago/Charlotte U185 (2 units)
Chicago has scored 114 & 118 their past two games, both games without Derrick Rose, so they can score without him. Lets not be fooled though, D-Rose means a lot to this team, and Chicago is a defense first team. Rose is likely out tonight with a toe injury. I think this is one of those defensive games Chicago is known for. I like the Bulls to win in the 94-81 range.

Dallas -5.5 (2 units)
Dallas has impressed me as of late. They went into Utah and beat the Jazz, both games against the LA team
s were close losses, and previous to that won 5 straight. Lets face it, New Orleans is not good, especially without their scoring machine Eric Gordon. They have lost 6 straight games, and I think 7 is tonight. I'm going to be picking against New Orleans a lot this season with spreads under 3 buckets.

Miami/Philly U194.5, Philly +7.5 (2 units)
Philly's athleticism is going to give Miami trouble tonight. Both teams average 206 points total, but I think this game will be low scoring, and Philly keeps it close. I really like the way Jrue Holiday is playing and AI2 is playing a little better then his disappointing 10-11 season. I still think the 76ers would be foolish not to trade him though for Monta Ellis. The one thing this team is missing is a consistent scorer. Philly is for real folks. They proved that in the game versus Denver.

Best of luck today

NBA Picks 1/20/12

2012-01-20T03:29:00.000-08:00

Boy did the Lakers look like shit last night in Miami. I'm glad I didn't buy in to the whole Lebron may miss the game rumor and blow some units on the Lakers last night. The under was a solid play, as I thought the public was going to be heavy on the over. Lakers on the road are totally different team then they are at home this year. The late night game, I hit my Dallas moneyline play since they won outright. A 2-0 night, improving my winning percentage to 61% for the season.

YTD 47-30
Totals 19-8
Moneyline 4-6
Units +40.9

I'm gonna have a small card tonight, due to actually playing cards tonight. Don't sweat, I got you all covered this weekend for some more winning picks.

New York -5.5 (2 units)
I think the Knicks losing streak ends tonight at home. One thing that seems to be a trend this year is that once a superstar has an awful game, they seem to rebound the next game with a good showing. Carmelo had an awful game on Wednesday shooting 5-22 from the field. I think Melo gets back on track and has a 35+ point night to lead the Knicks to a W.

Memphis -3.5 (2 units)
The Grizzlies are red hot winning 4 straight, while Detroit has been playing like crap lately. They were actually beating a good Timberwolves team the other night and then got outscored 29-14 in the 4th qtr to blow it. Some may think this is a trap game, I do not. I like Memphis and the small number.

Atlanta/Philly O184 (2 units)
The Hawks match up very well to the red hot 76ers. The 76ers have been a scoring machine at home. They have averaged 105 over their past 5 home games, and 101 total for the season. Both teams play great defenese, but that is more against slow down type teams. Both of the teams are very athletic and can run. I think this game is around 102-96 range.

Best of luck today

Fantasy Football Friday - #1 Overall Pick in 2012 Draft

2012-01-19T18:27:00.000-08:00

Last Week we discussed if Tim Tebow would be a top 12 QB.   It was a definite no for me, but not all of our "experts" agreed with me.   Kudos for Dan & Steve for going out on a limb believing in the Tebow hype, and actually throwing out an argument for Tebow, but after this past week there is no doubt in my mind that they are wrong. I guess time will only tell.

This weeks question: In standard leagues, who should be the No. 1 pick in fantasy football in 2012?

This is a topic I am going to be debating all year, because there is so many ways you can go with your first pick.    The first and most important thing to clarify right up front that a standard league to me is 12 teams, not a 10 team league like some sites have. Since we have this squared away, for me its not about who is the #1 pick, it is who is going to be there at #24 & #25.   We will get to that in a second.

The one fantasy myth is that you need RB's to win your league. The days of RB/RB in round 1 & 2 are over as so many teams platoon backs, and so many injuries happen throughout the season. With RB's you need depth. I recommend building your team with no backup TE,K or DEF, and using those extra bench spots on RB/WR's.

Practice makes perfect. Do mock drafts and use scenarios with drafting a QB with your first rounder, and then do the same thing with going for a RB or WR.   Compare your first five/six rounds and see which team you like better. Obviously, there are a lot of intangibles when it comes to the real draft, but the more times you mock, the better off you are.   What happens if you take Aaron Rodgers with the first pick in the draft, and then unexpectedly 16 RB's are taking in the next 23 picks.   Strange things happen, and you need to be prepared to roll with the punches.

So who am I targeting at #1? The player I want was my #1 rated RB last year and that is Ray Rice. Rice was 1st in the NFL in total yards (2068) and 2nd in totals TD's (15). I think Rice is the best RB in football, and is a lock for at least top 5 this next season.   The reasoning behind my Rice pick comes down to who I think will be available to me at the end of the 2nd round.   Drafting Aaron Rodgers is awfully tempting. I am going to get a guy who is going to get me 4000+ yards and 40 TD easy, but there are so many talented QB's that I will be happy with a Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton at the end of the 2nd round. Even someone like Tom Brady could slip. Like I mentioned above, stranger things have happened. I think the combo of Rice/Stafford is better then Rodgers/Reggie Bush. That is if I went with a QB in rounds 2/3. I could get a Jimmy Graham/Roddy White there and grab someone like Romo with my back to backs my next time around. Romo in the 5th, is going to be better then Jonathan Stewart. (believe me, you don't want that headache)

Grabbing an elite RB is a risk though. Jamaal Charles & Chris Johnson were both top 5 selections last year, and both were major disappointments. (one due to injury, one due to sucking)    I will take my chances though with Rice, and grab his handcuff in the round before I start taking my defense & kicker.

I'm interested to see if any of the experts go outside the box and take a QB with the #1 pick. Check out the The Daily Blitz tomorrow to see for yourself.

NBA Picks 1/19/12

2012-01-19T15:08:00.000-08:00

I should have kept my plays to the 3 I had in the morning. I added the over on the Magic/Spurs game last night and that was no where near over, and they played an OT as well. Definitely my biggest loss points wise on a total all season. I managed to go 2-2 for the night, and hit a nice moneyline play on the Kings. I picked up a tenth of a unit. Wooohoo!

YTD 45-30
Totals 18-8
Moneyline 3-6
Units +36.3

Only 3 games on the slate for today, and I only got two plays.

Dallas +2 , +.5 ML +130 (2 units)
There is going to be a ton of people on Utah tonight. I am not going to be one of those. Dallas lost two closely fought battles to the Lakers & Clippers, and Utah is just off two wins against some of the hottest teams in the West in the Clippers and Nuggets. Utah is tough at home this year with a 7-1 record, but I think that the Mavericks defense is the difference in this one. They win an ugly game by 5.

Miami/LA Lakers U192 (2 units)
The Lakers don't exactly light up the scoreboard to begin with, and Lebron is questionable with flu like symptoms. I know people are calling for a MJ playoff game like performance out of Lebron tonight if he plays. The Lakers aren't a great road team to begin with (1-4) so even if by chance Lebron misses the game (and he won't) they still will have a hard time winning. I think this game is around 92-86. I like the under.

Best of luck today!

2012 - NFC Conference Championship Prediction

2012-01-18T18:29:00.000-08:00

The NFC games this past weekend were probably the best set of games imaginable as a fan of the NFL. I think this game will disappoint some.   First off, I am routing for an all Harbaugh Super Bowl. Unfortunately, I think I am going to be an unhappy camper Sunday night when we have a rematch of Super Bowl XLII.

The 49ers won this matchup in Week 10 27-20, but this is a completely different Giants team now. The Giants are at full strength basically now. The Giants don't have the same dominant o-line & d-line in my opinion that they had back in 2007.   Their d-line is very good especially since they have so many guys that can plug in and play.   When they were battling injuries on the d-line earlier this year, they weren't getting nearly as much pass rush as they are now, as the bodies were just not fresh enough. This has been the key to the Giants defense, because as much as the secondary has been playing better as of late, they are still just a very average bunch skill wise.

Eli Manning hands down is the Giants MVP. He turned a no named receiver by most in the NFL Victor Cruz into an elite talent over night.   The most talented WR Hakeem Nicks has been on fire these playoffs hauling in 13 rec for 280 yards and 4 TD.   Lets also not forget about former #2 WR Mario Manningham who has scored in each playoff game as well.   Eli has plenty of weapons, and if we saw one thing this past week, it is the 49ers are beatable through the air.   The 49ers are like the Ravens where they will beat the shit out of you every play until you breakdown physically & mentally. They match up well versus smash mouth teams, but unfortunately for San Fran the Giants are no longer the ground and pound teams that we are used to seeing.

I think the party is over for Alex Smith and the 49ers. Last week was like their Super Bowl with that emotional come from behind win in the final seconds. I think Smith and the 49ers will come out flat in this one. Call it a Super Bowl hangover. I think the Giants score early and often which will force San Fransisco to abandon their run game which will lead to some Alex Smith mistakes. Smith may be the QB for the future for the 49ers, but the Giants are red hot, and they are the team to beat not only in the NFC, but the NFL. The Giants win in a game that is not as close as the score tells 31-17.

NBA Picks 1/18/12

2012-01-18T15:09:00.000-08:00

I missed a 3-0 night by a layup in garbage time in the Cavaliers/Warriors game. I am happy with a positive 2-1 night though. Houston & Denver with the wins.

YTD 43-28
Totals 18-7
Moneyline 2-5
Units +36.2

Their is a ton of games today to choose from, so lets do this.

Denver +6 (2 units)
Both teams are red hot for sure. When Philly has been winning they have been smoking people. In 9 out of their 10 wins they have by 10 points or more. If you look at who they beat in those 9 out of 10 games though, the only team that is a legit playoff team is Indiana, and thats only because they play in the Eastern Conference. Denver is too good, and I think they give the 76ers trouble tonight, if not win outright.

Sacramento +6, ML 1/2 +200 (2 units)
The Kings at home are a lot different then they are on the road. I think they win this game outright against the Pacers. Tyreke Evans had an awful night shooting the other day, but I think he rebounds tonight. Evans became only the 4th player in NBA history to average 20 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast in his first two seasons. The other three guys, are arguably in the Top 10 players of all time. (Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson & Lebron James)

Portland +2, ML 1/2 +110 (2 units)
Atlanta is tough at home, but the loss of C Al Horford is going to be devastating when they play teams with a lot of size. Portland is one of those teams that doesn't matchup very well for the Hawks. Lamarcus Aldridge and Gerald Wallace should have big games against the Hawks. I like Portland to win this straight up in the 95-90 range.

San Antonio/Orlando O194 (2 units)
I think we will see more "Hack a Howard" tonight. That extends games as that increases the number of possessions each team gets. San Antonio will dictate a faster pace game, and they aren't the same team defensively they were in years past. This game should be in the 100's unless Orlando goes ice cold from 3 land.

Best of luck today!

2012 - AFC Conference Championship Prediction

2012-01-17T19:36:00.000-08:00

I must say that the 49ers-Saints playoff game was one of the most entertaining games I have seen a long time. I really hope that Alex Smith has another good game versus the Giants this week. I was 2-2 SU with my picks losing with Green Bay & Houston, but more importantly was 4-0 ATS, improving my record to 6-2 in the playoffs this year.

AFC - (2) Baltimore at (1) New England
Baltimore has been a tricky team to figure out this year. They played awful versus the Texans, but they were lucky enough to get a few turnovers which lead to some easy points. They aren't going to be able to rely on those turnovers to beat New England. The Ravens offense is going to need to do a better job moving the ball and finishing drives with touchdowns, because the Patriots will score plenty of points. The Patriots defense looked great against the Broncos, but lets remember one thing, it was just the Broncos! Ray Rice may be the most valuable player to this team, and there is no doubt the Ravens need to give him plenty of touches and get him going, but Joe Flacco is the key to this game. Flacco has been hot & cold all year. One week he looks like he could be a franchise type QB, and then the next week there is rumors about Peyton Manning saving the team next season. Flacco is going to need to step up and have a big game.

It's funny that all the talk this year has been about Rodgers & Brees, and both of those guys are sitting home, and the best QB in the NFL is still playing. Brady has been playing great this season, and shouldn't get overlooked as a true MVP candidate. One thing that will be tough for Brady is that the Ravens play well against opposing TE's. The Ravens only give up 7 fantasy pts a game to opposing TE's. Only the Rams give up less points to TE's. It will be tough to stop Gronkowski & Hernandez though. I really like Brady and the Pats in the revenge factor here after that last embarrassing loss in the playoffs a few years back. I like the Ravens to cover the 7-1/2, but the Pats win 27-23. I really hope the Ravens win though.

NBA Picks 1/17/12

2012-01-17T15:27:00.000-08:00

Well, I blew a good weekend with an awful MLK day. I made some plays early in the morning, and one bit me in the ass when Derrick Rose didn't go for the Bulls today, and they lost to Memphis on the road. John Wall waited until today to have a career day in scoring. Wall and the Wizards have been awful this year, but today they learn to shoot and score. The Lakers won, but they didn't cover by 1. I have had plenty of luck winning by a point here and there so I guess I was due. A 0-3 night. Uggggh

YTD 41-27
Totals 18-6
Moneyline 2-5
Units +34.4

On to todays games....

Golden St./Cleveland U198 (2 units)
Golden St. has started to score a little more on this road trip, and Cleveland has been playing well, but I think this game will be low scoring in the 94-88 area. Kyrie Irving has been living up to being the #1 overall pick in this past years draft. It is tempting to take the Cavs at home, because Golden St. is just not that good right now, but I think the under is the safer and better play.

Houston -7 (2 units)
This is more of a play against Detroit then anything. Detroit has lost 7 of 8, and now go on the road to face the Rockets who are very good at home. I may put a play on the Over in this game, but Detroit scoring worries me. The Rockets have put up over 100 pts in 3 straight, while Detroit only averages about 86 pts per game. I think Houston rolls by double digits.

Denver -2.5 (2 units)
Milwaukee's undefeated home streak (4-0) ends here against the Nuggets. Pretty weird, that after the Carmelo Anthony trade Denver has been money, and the Knicks continue to struggle. I really like the make up of this Denver team. They are one piece away from being a legit title contender, but either way are good enough to beat a Bucks team on the road. These are the type of games that good teams find a way to win.

Best of luck tonight

NBA Picks 1/16/12

2012-01-15T18:35:00.001-08:00

I guess my only regret of the day was not taking the juicy Golden St. moneyline. Oh well. I will take a win though for a perfect 1-0 night. In other news, all 4 of my NFL plays hit which is nice. I did lose a 1/2 unit on the Texans moneyline.

YTD 41-24
Totals 18-5
Moneyline 2-5
Units +41

Today is Martin Luther King day which means some early tips. Lets get right to it.

Chicago -3.5 (2 units)
I like the Bulls on the road here. Their is a small revenge play for Memphis since they got spanked by 40 in their last meeting, but Randolph is still out and Chicago is too talented to lose to a depleted Grizz team.

LA Lakers -4 (2 units)
I'm on the Lakers tonight. Dallas has been playing pretty well lately, but they don't have an answer in the middle for the Lakers bigs Gasol/Bynum. Losing Tyson Chandler in the offseason was huge.

Houston/Washington U190.5 (2 units)
Houston can score for sure. They average 96 pts per game. Washington on the other hand only 86 pts per game, and have only scored over 95 pts per game once this season. I like another typical Washington game, something around 94-87.

Best of luck today.

NBA Picks 1/15/12

2012-01-15T10:09:00.000-08:00

I had a great night with my picks yesterday going 4-1, and hitting a nice +150 ML bet on the Bobcats last night. I guess MJ's words and starting Kemba Walker over Diaw made the difference. The Knicks/Thunder game had me worried when the Thunder had 70 points at halftime. It wasn't looking good for the under. Luckily for me the Thunder only scored 34 the entire 2nd half, and the Knicks team under missed as well. The Clippers/Lakers game was high scoring as expected and I hit that totals play as well. My only loss of the night came with the Nets who got beat on the road versus Utah. Nights like these don't happen very often, but when they do it feels pretty good.

YTD 40-24
Totals 18-5
Moneyline 2-5
Units +39

Only 3 games on tap today, so only 1 play today.

Golden St +4.5 (2 units)
Monta Ellis was awful last night in Charlotte shooting 6-26 from the field. I think he rebounds tonight and has a big game against the Pistons. A money line play on the Warriors is awfully tempting, but both teams are pretty bad and I will take the points in this one.

Best of luck today!

NBA Picks 1/14/12

2012-01-14T13:38:00.000-08:00

I guess it makes sense that one of my only losing nights of the 2012 year fell on Friday the 13th. Lets review the bad before I get to the good of last night. Portland was in it until the 4th qtr last night, and then San Antonio just turned it on. I definitely have misjudged the Spurs this year. Miami is now on a 3 game losing streak after losing to Denver last night. Denver shot 55% from the field and hit 12 three pointers. Really nothing you can do in a game like that. Milwaukee got absolutely run out of the building at Dallas. Luckily their was a combined 32 points in the 4th qtr so I was able to nail my under bet. Both of my totals plays were 2-0. Perhaps I should just start betting totals. Hmmmm. I ended up 2-3 for the night, and losing on my big play. (Miami)

YTD 36-23
Totals 15-5
Moneyline 1-5
Units +30.2

Today we have a lot of games to choose from.

New York U93.5/Oklahoma City U197.5 (2 units)
Carmelo Anthony has been ruled out for the game today, which means the Knicks are going to have to rely on finding offense elsewhere. Oklahoma City has the bigs to match Amare/Chandler, so I think it is going to come down to perimeter shooting. Iman Shumpert is fresh off a 5-20 night shooting, and he is only shooting 38% for the year. Shumpert has been a pleasant surprise for the Knicks this season. He filld out the stat sheet, plays good defense, but he is too inexperienced to run the show. I'd play the Thunder, but I can see a back door cover from the Knicks in this one.

New Jersey +8 (2 units)
This is the third game in as many days for the Nets, but I really like the way they played last night at Phoenix, also this is Deron Williams first game back in Utah so I expect him to be up for this game. Give me the 8 points here.

Charlotte +3, +150ML (2 units)
Michael Jordan called out the Bobcats after losing their 6th straight game. I think they come out and play an inspired game at home and beat the Warriors. The Warriors are still without Curry, and are just off a tough loss at home versus Orlando. I'm adding a ML play on this game as well.

Clippers/Lakers O189 (2 units)
Can't wait for this game tonight. The Lakers are currently on a 5 game winning streak, and the Clippers have won 4 of 5. The Clippers will dictate the pace of the game and get out and run against this old Lakers team. I think this game will end up in the high 90's, low 100's, plus these teams are so close that their could be OT as well.

Best of luck today!

Yankees losers in the Pineda/Montero deal

2012-01-13T19:10:00.000-08:00

It isn't exactly baseball season, and there has been plenty of moves this off-season that topped this, but I live in New York, so I'm giving you my reaction.

This deal was a head scratcher for sure. With the recent news of fan favorite Jorge Posada retiring, Yankees fan knew that they had another home grown catcher that could be the next Posada or even better on their team already in Jesus Montero.   There isn't too many catchers in the league right now that are as good as Montero right now, and we have only seen a small glimpse of what he can do.   There is no doubt in my mind that Montero would have been in the 6th hole next year and producing nightly for the Yankees.

Baseball America had Montero as their #3 prospect going into last season, while Pineda was #16.   Pineda started off as hot as anyone in baseball, and even was pitching better then King Felix, but like many young pitchers do got tired later in the season and his numbers declined.

Pitching in the AL East is going to be different then pitching in the AL West, at least in years past. Obviously the addition of Pujols in LA changes that for LA this year, but in general looking at the lineups in the East & West, the big boys are in the East. Pineda struggled in his only meeting versus the Red Sox last year giving up 7 runs in 4-1/3 innings. I really like Pineda and think he is a good young prospect, but Montero could have been as special to the Yankees as Mike Piazza was to the Mets.

If you follow the Yankees you know about their 3 young pitchers. Ivan Nova who we saw last year. He was their best pitcher besides CC Sabathia last year. Manuel Banuelos & Dellin Betances that are currently in the minors were both to be considered starting pitching material. I think making this deal shows a little more about the lack of confidence Brian Cashman has with these young prospects, and the fact is that he has more pressure on him now to win, then in years past.

Cashman has a history of trading good prospects away too soon. Look at the Melky Cabrera for Javier Vazquez deal and how that worked out. I wrote about the season that Melky Cabrera was having during the regular season.   Cabrera fell 2 Hr's short of a 20/20 season, he batted .305 & scored 102 runs last year with Kansas City.   I know Nick Swisher is a fan favorite in NY, but the numbers don't lie.

I know chicks dig the long ball, and pitching wins championships, but their is more risk with pitching then there is with position players. How many elite pitchers end up having Tommy John surgery? Lets name a few... Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, CJ Wilson, Chris Carpenter, Kerry Wood, Stephen Strasburg, Tim Hudson & Fransisco Liriano. Some pitchers recovery nicely from TJS, and some do not (Edinson Volquez, Erik Bedard) I think the Yankees should have stood pat, and see what Banuelos/Betances could do in the pros before making a move like this. If anything, trade Montero/Banuelos for King Felix.

Bottom line - Bad trade for the Yankees.

Hey, at least I'm not talking about the mega moves the Mets are doing. We got Frank Fransisco. Look out NL East!

NBA Picks 1/13/12

2012-01-13T15:47:00.000-08:00

It was definitely the oddest NBA game i have seen a long time. I knew the Magic's Dwight Howard was going to have a big game against the beat up Warriors, but I didn't expect a 45/23 night. Howard also set the NBA record in free throw attempts with 39. He made just over half of them (21) which ironically raised his free throw percentage for the year. I'm glad I didn't pull the trigger with the Suns.   I was 1-0 for the night, and look forward to a weekend full of NBA & NFL action.

YTD 34-20
Totals 13-5
Moneyline 1-4
Units +34.6

Today's Picks.

Miami -3 (3 units)
Miami is too good to lose 3 games in a row. The Warriors game was just an off night for the Heat. The Clippers match the Heat in talent, so I am not shocked that they lost this one.   The Nuggets are 5-1 at home this year, and 8-3 ATS so far this season, but I think a healthy Heat team, and Nuggets team who may be without Ty Lawson are going to struggle versus the Heat.

Milwaukee +8.5 U185(2 units)
Milwaukee like the Lakers the other night have yet to win a road game this year (0-6). They just finished their last home stand 2-0 with good wins versus San Antonio & Detroit.   I'm still not buying Dallas. They did beat the Celtics at home, but they play poor defense, and against an athletic Bucks teams I think they will struggle. The Bucks swept the Mavericks last year in two meetings. I think this game comes down to the wire, and I believe this game will be in the mid 80's.

Portland +2 (2 units)
The Spurs are 7-0 at home this year, so it is tough to bet against them, but if there is one team that can beat them on the road its the Trailblazers. The Blazers match up very well with the Spurs, and I think their fast paced offense will be the difference. I got a 1/2 unit on the moneyline as well +110, as I think the Blazers win this one outright.   Gerald Wallace/Lamarcus Aldridge are too much for the Spurs.

Sacramento/Houston U200 (2 units)
I like the under in this one. Both teams combine to average for about 187 pts, and they give up almost 200 pts. Sacramento is awful on the road with a 1-4 record, and they are 29th in the NBA in FG% (40%). That mark decreases to 37% when they are on the road.   I don't see this game going over 190, if it does, its because Houston wins by 20+

Best of luck today.

Fantasy Football Fridays - 1/13/12

2012-01-12T16:57:00.000-08:00

Our friends over at Eat Drink and Sleep Football are doing a new column every Friday, where they ask one question and the panel of "experts" answers.

This weeks question is Will Tim Tebow finish the 2012 season in the top 12 QBs in fantasy points?

This may be the easiest question of the off-season. Their is no way Tim Tebow will finish in the top 12 in fantasy points next year among QB's. Tebow will never be a QB who throws for 3500 yards & 20+ TD's. Tebow is going to need to put up rushing touchdowns like Cam Newton did this year to crack the top 12, and that isn't happening. If Tebow is named starter next year, and that is a big IF, I don't think he will play a full 16 games. I believe this game this week versus the Patriots will lay the blue print down forever on how to stop the Tebow led Broncos. I see Tebow starting next year, and lasting about 6-7 games before being yanked for good. So if Tebow is not in the Top 12, who is? Here is my early list.

1. Aaron Rodgers - This may be a year where three QB's get taken within the first 15 picks, and Rodgers is my clear cut #1 QB. I see another big 4500+ 40 TD year.

2. Drew Brees - Brees, now the owner of the NFL's single season passing record, who not only beat it, destroyed it will have another monster year. I can see another 5,000 yard season in 2012.

3. Tom Brady - I honestly overlooked Brady in 2011. I won't be making that mistake in 2012. I believe in Brady and his new found TE weapons.

4. Matthew Stafford - Stafford had some monster games this year, and he has the best WR in football to throw to. I like another big season for him and the Lions.

5. Cam Newton - . I do see a little sophmore slump, and there is no way I see 14 rushing touchdowns again. He was labeled a running QB, but still threw for 4000 yards. I still like him here though.

6. Philip Rivers - I will gladly wait and have Rivers fall right into my lap. Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson & Malcolm Floyd were all injured last year, when all healthy Rivers looked awesome.

7. Eli Manning - The Giants have transitioned from a ground and pound type offense to a passing team. Cruz,Nicks & Manningham all on the field will be dangerous in 2012.

8. Peyton Manning - I am not sure where Peyton ends up, but his health is still a factor, and I am not gambling on him right now. I still think he is a top 10 QB though.

9. Tony Romo - Romo has just as many weapons as anyone. Like Rivers, he was without a full cast for most of the year. I like a big fantasy year from Romo next year.

10. Matt Ryan - The Falcons like the Giants have also transitioned to more of a passing team. I think Matty Ice will have another good year, watch out for Julio Jones in 2012.

11. Michael Vick - Vick, a former first round fantasy pick is borderline top 10. He is too injury prone, and his rushing touchdowns have gone down every year.

12. Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben remains in the Top 12. They found a replacement for Hines Ward in Antonio Brown.

To see the other responses, check out the links below this Friday!

Follow EDS Football on Facebook
And also the blog from EDS Football The Daily Blitz

NBA Picks 1/12/12

2012-01-12T04:02:00.000-08:00

There is nobody better in any sport calling a game then Jeff Van Gundy. He hit the nail right on the head mid way through the 4th quarter in the Celtics/Mavs game when Celtics guard Keyon Dooling lost the ball, and Mavs Rodrigue Beaubois went in for a layup from the steal and was fouled on the play. He commented that everyone else on the floor was standing watching the play. It was pretty embarrassing to watch. No hustle whatsoever, and when the Celtics battled back in this game, it was their young bench that did it. Unfortunately for me, Ray Allen drops an inbound pass with 5 seconds left where he would have had a wide open 3 to tie, which he undoubtedly would have made to send the game to OT.   I ended up 0-2 in this game with my Boston and the over pick.

My other 2 picks for the night won with the Knicks & Lakers. The Knicks were up 17 in the 4th qtr and then they just decided to stand around and watch each other shoot jumpers. Shumpert is a great talent, but Mike D'Antoni needs a veteran point guard handling the rock late in games. He was making too many mistakes, and taking some pretty bad shots. Kudos to the 76ers for clawing back though.    The Lakers won their first game of the year with an OT win in Utah. Kobe was Kobe. 2-2 for the night, I am not happy about it, but after losing 2 in one game, it almost feels like a winning night.

YTD 33-20
Totals 13-5
Moneyline 1-4
Units +31.6

Today there isn't a lot to choose from so I just got one play today...

Orlando -3 (3 units)
Both teams are just off impressive wins.   The Warriors beat the Heat two nights ago at home, and the Magic just beat the Trailblazers on the road last night.   Golden St. is dealing with a bunch of injuries. Stephen Curry is still out, and more importantly bigs Andris Biedrins & Kwame Brown are both hurting. Biedrins didn't play two nights ago, and Brown got the start, and I expect the same in this matchup. When Kwame Brown is your main guy to stop Dwight Howard you are in trouble. I think the Magic keep rolling and beat the Warriors on the road.

Might add this one later Phoenix -7, This would be my play on betting against the Cavs on their current road trip. 7 just seems like a big number. I'm gonna wait and see what the line looks like tonight.

Best of luck today.

NBA Picks 1/11/12

2012-01-11T04:19:00.000-08:00

The 76ers disappointed me on Monday Night by missing the over in the Pacers game by 1 point. Last night I bet on the under, and the 76ers covered by 1 point.   The point is, it all equals out in the end. You will remember the bad beats over the winners though.

Losing games down the stretch when teams start fouling always hurts, and thats what happened to the Clippers last night.   On the other end of it was Oklahoma City where they were able to ice the game because of foul shot down the stretch. In the end, it equals out.

My auto fade of Cleveland is on a 2-0 road trip run as they lost to the Jazz last night.   I went 3-1 last night, and 2-0 on my big 3 unit plays.

YTD 31-18

Totals 13-4
Moneyline 1-4
Units +32

Todays Picks...

NY Knicks -4 (2 units)
I really like the Knicks in this one. The 76ers lost C Spencer Hawes last night to a back injury. His status is questionable for tonight, but I fully expect him to get a night off. Hawes has been a nice find for the 76ers this year.   A very interesting stat reported from Kevin over at EDSFootball was that "This was tweeted by ESPN Stats & Info: "76ers with 5 20-point wins in 9 games already this season. ELIAS: Last team to do that was 1969-70 NBA champion Knicks." The 76ers have been one of the hottest teams in the league, but the competition they have beat has been mediocre. They did just thump the Pacers, but the Pacers aren't among the elite teams in the East, they are bottom feeder 7,8 seed team.   Another interesting stat on this game, is that 7 times this year a team has played 3 games in 3 nights, in that third game they have won straight up in 6 of 7. The Timberwolves blew a 6-0 run last night.    I am betting against the trend, and the hot team. Yikes! Melo/Amare had an awful shooting night against the Bobcats the other night, and I expect them to rebound tonight.   Knicks cover

LA Lakers -2 (2 units)
Utah is undefeated at home this year with a 5-0 record, and the Lakers are winless on the road with a 0-3 record. I expect both of these trends to end tonight. Kobe just dropped in 48 last night versus the Suns, and I think Kobe and the Lakers stay hot and beat the Jazz on the road.

Boston/Dallas O184 -5 (2 units)
Not sure how the schedule makers allowed the Celtics to get 5 days rest. Seems pretty odd since we have 3 teams tonight playing 3 games in 3 days. Good for them though.   They are well rested for this one. Rajon Rondo is shooting lights out from the field. Ray Allen is as sharp as ever, and Dallas is struggling especially at PG. Jason Kidd has been awful so far, and I bet ya Mark Cuban wishes he paid some money for JJ Barea now. Barea was the spark for this Mavs team last year in the playoffs. This team currently built right now has little shot at going deep in the playoffs.   I like Boston and the over in this one.

Best of luck today

2012 - NFC Divisional Round Playoff Predictions

2012-01-10T18:36:00.000-08:00

I am a fan of an AFC team, but the AFC games have nothing on the NFC games this weekend. My AFC winners were predicted yesterday.

(3) New Orleans at (2) San Fransisco
Home field advantage in the NFL is more important than any other sport by far. The Saints at home are a total different team then they are on the road. The Saints were 5-3 on the road this year. The loss at Green Bay can be expected, but two stinkers against the Bucs & Rams who combined to go 6-26 were awful, and cost the Saints the #2 seed in the NFC. The Saints have covered in amazing 9 games in a row. I don't think they will make it 10 in this one. I really like San Fransisco's defense. Aldon Smith has been a terror all year and should win the defensive rookie of the year award. Patrick Willis is one of the best defensive players in football. San Fransisco was been money at home all year. Their only loss came to the Cowboys in a game which they should have won. Alex Smith hasn't lived up to being the #1 overall QB in the 2005 draft, but he has played better this year under Jim Harbaugh. I think San Fransisco will ground & pound, and play great defense and sneak out a win in this one. Everyone wants to see a New Orleans vs Green Bay matchup, but they will be disappointed early. New Orleans on a slow field versus a good defense will lose in the final few seconds 27-24

(4) NY Giants at (1) Green Bay
The game of the week is the last game of the weekend. It is the game I am looking forward to most. We have seen the Giants on one of their late season runs. Eli Manning played great last weekend, and the ground game should be solid this Sunday versus the Packers defense. There is nobody in the league who makes more big plays then Eli Manning, unfortunately with big plays comes mistakes. I think Eli will get picked once or twice in this one and that will be the difference. I think the Packers will struggle in the beginning of the game, mainly due to a little rust, but once Rodgers gets going I think he will pick apart a terrible Giants secondary. The Giants front four is going to have to play the game of their lives to stop Rodgers and the Pack. This game will be lower scoring then most people think. The O/U is set at 52.5. I like this game to be under that mark, and I also think the Giants with the points is a good play. I like the Giants to come out strong, perhaps get a double digit lead, and then Rodgers and the Pack to come back from behind in the 4th qtr to win it. Packers 23-19

Smith vs Rodgers next weekend!

NBA Picks 1/10/12

2012-01-10T16:25:00.000-08:00

Last night's LSU-Albama title game was so boring that I found myself watching the Knicks-Bobcats game on MSG. Sorry Time Warner people, sucks to be you, at least you had the option of the Nets on the YES Network. Melo & Amare combined to shoot a dreadful 13-43 from the field. Bobcats PG DJ Augustin hit a ridiculous three to get the game close, but missed a wide open as time expired to push the game into OT. I missed the moneyline play again, but I am happy with the ATS win.

My other two games on the card were totals games which I have been red hot this year. I missed out on Indiana-Philly by 1 point which is always tough. The Nuggets-Hornets game shocked me to see the Hornets put a whooping on the Nuggets like that on the road without their best player. It wasn't looking good for the under after the 3rd quarter, but New Orleans really ate up the clock in the 4th and both teams combined to get 33 points. It was another winning night going 2-1.

YTD 28-17
Totals 12-4
Moneyline 1-4
Units +26.2

We have a huge amount of games to choose from today, so lets do this.

Sacramento/Philly U198 (3 units)
Philly has the best defense in the NBA in regards to PPG. This is the first game for the Kings on this long road trip. They do give up over 100 PPG, but Philly is playing their 4th game in 5 days. I think the final score will be around 96-88 Philly. Easy play on the under.

Oklahoma City -3 (3 units)
The Grizzlies only home loss this season was to the Thunder earlier this year when they lost by 3. Memphis starting PG Mike Conley is doubtful for the game, and their best player Zach Randolph is out until next month with a knee injury. Conley did play the other day versus the Lakers, but he has a huge test on his hand against Russell Westbrook. I think Westbrook/Durant are too much for Memphis here.

Utah -5 (2 units)
Another play against the Cavs on their current road trip. Utah at home is 4-0, and I think they make it 5-0 tonight with a win against Cleveland. Utah's bigs will be the difference in this one.

LA Clippers +5.5 (2 units)
The Clippers beat Portland in their earlier meeting this year, and I think it will happen again in this one.

Best of luck today

2012 - AFC Divisional Round Playoff Predictions

2012-01-09T18:03:00.000-08:00

The first weekend of playoff action is in the books, and boy were they a bunch of stinkers up until the very last game. I was wrong about Tim Tebow and the Broncos. They game to play Sunday for sure. My playoff predictions have been average. 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS.

This weeks games.

AFC

(4) Denver Tebows at (1) New England Patriots
The Broncos played with a chip on their shoulder Sunday as very few people actually gave them a shot. There is going to be even less people who are gonna give them a shot this week at New England. The Steelers lost the game, not on defense but offense. Their protection on Ben Roethlisberger was awful. Denver had 5 sacks and was chasing Big Ben all over the field. Ben didn't look comfortable back there at all. I do think the injury did come into play more then he is letting on. This week the Broncos enter Foxboro and face the AFC's top QB, and unlike Roethlisberger, Brady is a quick decision maker and gets the ball out quick. This will neutralize Denver's pass rush. I think the Patriots will have no trouble moving the ball up and down the field and I fully expect them to score 30+ points in this one. Steelers defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau may well be one of the greatest DC's of all time, but Lebeau ins't Belichick. The Steelers may have a better defensive team statistically, have the better personnel, but they do not have Belichick. As much as I hate Belichick, I respect him. I fully expect Belichick to come up with a defensive scheme to shut down the one dimensional Tebow lead Broncos offense. I see multiple turnovers in Tebow's future, and a sub 40% completion percentage. This game will get ugly. I think the Pats steam roll the Broncos in this one. 44-10

(3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens
I may be changing my AFC Super Bowl pick after watching the Texans on Saturday. They looked really good against the Bengals. The Bengals are obviously not in the same class as the Ravens, but they did give the Ravens some trouble. Houston's defense is very good, and I made my case a few weeks ago for Wade Phillips as coach of the year. He turned that Texans defense around this year. Baltimore lives and dies with Ray Rice. Baltimore has gotten away from Rice at times this year, so it is very important for the Ravens to take a lead early and not play from behind. In Week 6 these two teams met in Baltimore and the Ravens won 29-14. This game was played without Andre Johnson though. I think Johnson is the X factor in this one. There isn't a corner on the Ravens that can cover Johnson. Baltimore is going to have to draw extra attention his way or he is going to beat them. This will open up some of the underneath stuff to Daniels & Dressen. This is where Yates is most comfortable. If the Ravens don't roll extra coverage towards Johnson, then Yates is very capable in burning them deep. I will live with my Baltimore-Green Bay as my official prediction for the Super Bowl, but I think the Texans are the one team this week that people are overlooking. I think they win in Baltimore 24-23.

NBA Picks 1/9/12

2012-01-09T14:47:00.000-08:00

I'm back to my winning ways going 2-1 yesterday hitting with the Wizards/Wolves under and the Trailblazers late last night.   My loss was with the Wizards who I thought could actual win a game against lowly Minnesota. They are so bad, they may go winless the rest of the year. John Wall has clearly regressed, and their only consistent scoring is coming out of Nick Young.

YTD 26-16
Totals 11-3
Moneyline 1-3
Units +24.9

Who will be watching the National Title game when there is NBA Games on!!! By the time the title game starts, some of these games will be over. LOL Today's Picks...

Indiana/Philly O183 (2 units)
Philly leads the NBA in pts allowed with 85.6, and Indiana is third with 89.3, but these teams both have a very young athletic team, Collison, Granger, George, Holliday, AI2. Both got bigs that can score in Hawes/West. I think this game will go over the 183.

Charlotte -11(2 units) 1/2unit +590
The Bobcats just beat the Knicks a few days ago, and I don't think the Knicks right now are 11 points better then anyone in the NBA and this includes teams like the Wizards. Bobcats PG DJ Augustin is playing great ball, and the Knicks will have troubles sticking him, plus rookie Kemba Walker returns to the Garden where if you remember he holds the Big East Tournament record in points where he scored 130 over the tournament last year. I think the Knicks lose to the Bobcats again.

Denver/New Orleans U193 (2 units)
No Eric Gordon for the Hornets. New Orleans is not going to be able to run and gun with the Nuggets if they have any shot to win this game. They are going to try and slow the pace down and play some good ole boring half court basketball.   I think this game will end up in the 100-86 range.

Best of luck with your plays today.

NBA Picks 1/8/12

2012-01-08T05:31:00.000-08:00

First losing night of the New Year going 2-4 with the picks yesterday. The Bulls ended their winning streak by getting smoked by the Hawks, luckily the Hawks came to play so I was able to hit my over play. Golden St. lost to Utah at home, and Toronto got smoked on the road at Philly. My team under play on the Nets was solid, but the Nets made me sweat in the 2nd half where they scored 55 points.

YTD 24-15
Totals 10-3
Moneyline 1-3
Units +22.1

Today, there is not a lot to choose from in the NBA.

Minnesota/Washington U198.5 +2.5 (2 units)
Too many points here. Washington hasn't topped 100 all season. Minnesota can score, but I think the pace of this game will be slow. I see total around 190.

Portland -10.5 (3 units)
Too much talent on this Blazers team. I generally don't like laying big numbers like this, but Cleveland is not going to come into Portland and give the Blazers a tough game. This is game 3 of a 7 game roadie for the Cavs, and I plan on playing against them. Portland is one of the toughest buildings to win in.

Best of luck today

NBA Picks 1/7/12

2012-01-07T04:17:00.000-08:00

Another .500 night going 1-1. Charlotte +3 was looking good down the stretch, but they forced overtime and ended up losing. The Lakers line was a gift. My only regret was not pounding it more.

YTD 22-11
Totals 8-2
Moneyline 1-3
Units +29.1

Today's plays

Golden St. -3 (3 units)
Still no Stephen Curry back for the Warriors tonight, but they played really well against the Lakers last night. Utah on the road is 0-3 this year and have been outscored by an average of 19 points per game.   Utah is riding a 3 game winning streak though, but I think Golden St at home will cover.

Chicago -5 (3 units) O174.5 2 units
Atlanta barely was able to beat Charlotte last night. Both teams are on tired legs. The Bulls have played 4 in 5 days, and the Hawks would be on their third straight game, but those games were highly fought overtime games. I like the Bulls laying the number on the road.   The Hawks big four Horford, Smith, Johnson & Teague have all logged 40+ minutes in back to back games. Johnson was awful shooting the ball last night. It is going to be tough making shots even when open, but when you face a team like Chicago that plays arguably the best defense in the league, you will be in even more trouble. That being said a total of 174.5 is too good to pass up.

Milwaukee/LA Clippers O192.5 (2 units)
The Clippers like to run, especially at home. Milwaukee is a different team with Gooden in the middle then they are with Bogut in the middle.   I have mentioned Bogut before in my picks.   He doesn't fit the Bucks offense. He isn't injured, so its a crap shoot if he is going to play or not, but my money is on that he isnt going to play. I see both teams scoring around 100 points in this one.

Toronto +10.5 (2 units)
Too many points here. I like Philly a lot this year, but 10-1/2 is a lot of points in the NBA. In 3 of 4 wins this year for Philly, they won by 20+ points, this won't be the case tonight. I think Toronto keeps it close, and the game is won in the 4th qtr by the 76ers.

New Jersey Team U92 (2 units)
I don't see New Jersey hanging with the Heat. I think this game could go two ways. Miami wins by 30 and the game over goes over, Miami wins by 8-10 and it is low scoring. Either way I think the Nets struggle to get to 90.

Lots of plays today. Lets get em.

NBA Picks 1/6/12

2012-01-06T04:23:00.000-08:00

Well, thanks to the Mavericks my 7-0 run came to an end last night. This team is in trouble. They are just too old. They replaced Tyson Chandler & Caron Butler departures this past season with Lamar Odom, Vince Carter & Delonte West.   On paper that may look like an upgrade, but it hasn't been so far. The Mavericks are in trouble. Good news for me, was I didn't get home on time to place my moneyline wager on the Mavericks so I saved myself a half a unit.

There is one lesson to be learned about my picks yesterday, and that is if you are going to lock in a play early then you need to live with the consequences. I fully expected Lebron to go back out and play last night against the Hawks after he finished the night before. Lebron was scratched, and here I was sitting with a Heat team as a 3-1/2 pt favorite without Lebron & D-Wade.   Luckily for me, the Heat still went on to win and cover, but more times then not, it goes in the opposite direction. So a 1-1 night, and only a .2 unit loss isn't as Charles Barkley would say Turrble.

YTD 21-10
Totals 8-2
Moneyline 1-3
Units +28.3

On to today's picks....

LA Lakers +3.5 (3 units)
Perhaps there is an error with this line online right now because no way the Lakers should be getting points at home.   Warriors guard Stephen Curry is already ruled out for this one. Even if Kobe were not to play tonight, there is still no way I would make the Warriors a favorite on the road here. Line doesn't make sense and I am putting a play in now. This game is OFF at a lot of books still, luckily at mine its not. I think the Lakers should be 3-1/2 pt favorites. This is a gift.

Charlotte +3 (2 units)
Atlanta has got to be tired after a 3 OT game last night versus the Heat. As I mentioned before Atlanta isn't very deep with talent, although last night their bench did score 49 of 109 points. T-Mac will struggle with back to back games though for sure.   Charlotte will most likely get Tyrus Thomas back from injury tonight, so that will definitely provide Charlotte with some much needed defense & rebounding. I think Charlotte wins here.

I'm locking these two in now, I should have more picks tonight.

2012 - NFL Playoff Predictions

2012-01-05T18:38:00.000-08:00

Here are my official playoff predictions. I will do individual predictions for each game throughout the playoffs. Click here to see my predictions for this Wildcard Weekend.

Divisional Round
AFC

(2) Baltimore over (3) Houston- TJ Yates will hold the Texans back.

(1) New England over (5) Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh has owned New England in recent years, but I think the Pats get bye in this one.

NFC
(1) Green Bay over (4) NY Giants - Green Bay too much for New York offensively.

(2) San Fransisco over (3) New Orleans - I think San Fransisco D is the difference in this one. New Orleans not the same team on the road.

Championship Round
AFC
(2) Baltimore over (1) New England - I don't think the Patriots have an answer for Ray Rice. I see a repeat of the last game in Foxboro.

NFC
(1) Green Bay over (2) San Fransisco - The Packers can just score way too many points for the 49ers to keep up with.

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Baltimore - This will probably be the popular pick, but these are the best two teams in each conference in my opinion. This is the first year in a long time where they have been so many teams going into the playoffs with major question marks.

NBA Picks 1/5/12

2012-01-05T04:13:00.000-08:00

Another night of NBA action is in the books, and another perfect night going 3-0 with my picks. I am as hot as ever right now, going 7-0 over the past 3 days. It is a long season, and although I am at 69% for the season, this won't last. My goal for every sport is to finish at 55% for the year which still turns a nice profit. Anything over 55% is just gravy.

YTD 20-9
Totals 8-2
Moneyline 1-3
Units +28.5

Just two plays today

Miami -3.5 (2 units)
Atlanta has been playing real good ball as of late beating Miami on the road, and coming so close to beating the Bulls on the road.   I think we get the revenge factor/let down game in this one. Atlanta may have one of the best starting five in the league, but their bench may be one of the worst. D-Wade may not be able to go, but I still like the Heat.

Dallas +3 (2 units)
The loss of Manu Ginobli is going to hurt the Spurs against good teams. They may be able to handle a team like the Warriors at home, but the Mavericks are a different beast. I like Dallas with the outright win on the road tonight. I will have at least a 1/2 unit moneyline play on this game as well, but just waiting for tonight to add.   Will post ML tonight.

Best of luck today!

NBA Picks 1/4/12

2012-01-04T16:49:00.000-08:00

Another perfect night in the books, going 1-0 with a Jazz win. The Jazz bigs were too much for a Bogut-less Bucks team. A good lesson in sports betting is to only make plays when you feel strong doing so. I did have some leans yesterday which were the Lakers & Bulls. I would have split those matchups, and ended up losing .3 units. Never bet on something because the game is on television, or its the only game of the night.

YTD Record 17-9
Totals 6-2
Moneyline 1-3
Units +21.5

Today there is a pretty big card to choose from. Here are some plays.

Chicago -6 (3 units)
This line seems a little small to me. I normally don't like betting on teams that play back to back games, but Chicago has good depth, so I am not worried. Detroit played well the other night and beat Orlando, but don't let that game fool you. Detroit has played Orlando tough the past few contests. Sometimes a team just has someones number, and that is the Bulls over the Pistons. Chicago has won the last 10 matchups over Detroit.

Sacramento/Denver U206.5 (2 units)
Denver can score, Sacramento on the road will have trouble scoring.

Golden St/San Antonio O191 (2 units)
San Antonio not the defensive team they used to be.

Best of luck tonight.

2011 Fantasy Football Flops

2012-01-03T18:58:00.000-08:00

Today, I am going to go over my picks for the biggest fantasy football flops. If you have one or more of these players on your team, chances are you didn't fair too well this season.

QB - Michael Vick
This is why, I am not banking on rushing TD's with running QB's. In 2010 Michael Vick was the #1 QB in fantasy football. Was it because of 4000 yd, 40 TD season? Nope, It was because of 9 rushing TD's.   Vick's ADP this year was 6th overall, and the #1 QB taken.   ESPN's Matthew Berry even made a case for him to be the #1 overall pick in the draft.   The numbers were there, and boy did he make a great compelling argument about Vick. I bought in to the Berry Kool-Aid myself and found myself taking Vick, although it was with the 10th pick in a 14 team league. I thought I had the steal of the draft. Boy was I wrong. Vick had some nice games, but he had a lot of duds as well.    Five games under 15pts, and 3 games missed due to injury. Vick was a major disappointment in 2012.

What can we expect from Vick in 2012? I don't see Vick ever regaining the top spot as top QB. In fact, I don't think Vick will crack the top 3 the rest of his career. Desean Jackson's situation in Philly will get ugly this offseason. Vick will be 32 next season, and with age comes more chance for injury. Your body doesn't heal as fast when you are older. Vick can still run around and make plays, and will still be the fastest QB in the league, but you can't count on him to play a full season. I'd take my chances with someone like Matthew Stafford in round 5 or 6, then Vick in the 3rd.

RB - Chris Johnson
No shock here. Chris Johnson and the Titans ground attack was awful this year.   So bad that the Titans finished last in the AFC in rushing. Also, kind of funny was that the Giants were at the bottom of the teams in the NFC. Both of the teams have always been known as a run first type of offense.   CJ2K barely finished the year with over 1000 yards and only 4 total touchdowns. Many blamed his contract holdout, but I did not. I blogged about Chris Johnson back in October and boy was I right unfortunately. I am a Titans fan if you are not aware by now.   Chris Johnson stealing a line from Lebron had not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, but 5 games this season where he failed to eclipse the 25 yard mark. That is crazy for a guy who was drafted in the top 5 this year.   Johnson was a fantasy bust for sure in 2011, but at least he is a well paid fantasy bust.

What can we expect from CJ2K in 2012?   I definitely see a rebound year in store for Johnson next season. Tennessee was crushed when they lost Kenny Britt for the year. Britt was actually starting to draw attention away from Johnson. Tennessee's coveted TE prospect Jared Cook also finally lived up to his potential down the stretch.   With a healthy Britt & Cook in Nashville next year, the pressure will come off CJ's shoulder. I also expect Tennessee to fix their interior line issue through the draft and free agency. Johnson I bet is back to 1700 total yards 8-10 TD's next year.

WR - Mike Williams (TB)
I can't vote for players who were injured for most of the season, so guys like Andre Johnson are out. The award for fantasy dud WR goes to Tampa Bay's Mike Williams. In 2010 Mike Williams a rookie out of Syracuse had a 65 rec 964 yds 11 TD season. Tampa Bay was a team that a lot of people liked as a potential playoff team this year. Josh Freeman was a good young QB that people were expecting to have a big year. They could run the ball with Blount, but it didn't work out that way. The Bucs & Williams played like they were wearing their orange uni's every week.

What can we expect from Williams in 2012? I think Williams could be a good sleeper pick next season. You can probably grab him around the 6th round next year. He did lead the Bucs in receiving yards this year. I don't think we will see a 11 TD season, but I think he could be a 1000/6 kind of WR.

TE - Marcedes Lewis
Lewis had 10 touchdowns in 2010. He had 0 this year. I didn't expect Lewis to match his 2010 total this season, but I did expect him to at least be a fantasy starter. All of the blame doesn't fall on Lewis. The Jags drafted Blaine Gabbert as their future QB, and needless to say they may be looking for some competition for him this offseason. The beauty of this new rookie wage scale is that now teams can cut lose on high draft picks and not be killed by the cap, unlike in years past where they was so much money involved.

What can we expect from Lewis in 2012? Lewis should and will go undrafted in most fantasy leagues next year. He has little to no value in this Jacksonville offense.

Thoughts?

NBA Picks 1/3/12

2012-01-03T03:57:00.000-08:00

It has been a great 2012 so far for me. Last night especially, where I predicted the Heat to lose their first game of the year to Atlanta. Gotta love an almost 5-1 odds on that game. The Warriors/Suns over hit by point. It wasn't looking good, but fouling and free throws down the stretch saved me. I didn't hit my 1/2 unit moneyline play on Milwaukee although they were leading all game, but I did cover with my 5-1/2. I went 3-0 for the day with picks

YTD 16-9
Totals 6-2
Moneyline 1-3
Units +18.5

There isn't much that stands out today, so instead o picking just to pick games, I am only going to make 1 play today.

Utah +1 (3 units)
Milwaukee ran out of gas last night in Denver. Perhaps it was the altitude? Andrew Bogut as I have mentioned before is not to be relied on in back to back games. He has a history of injury problems. I think Utah's bigs come to play and win this one tonight.

Best of luck tonight!

2011 - Fantasy Football MVP's

2012-01-02T19:17:00.000-08:00

The fantasy football season is now officially over. It was a disappointing year for yours truly failing to make the playoffs in all of my leagues.   This is the first time in over 10 years that I didn't have at least 1 team in the playoffs, and the first time in 5 years that I didn't cash.   I hope to have better luck in 2012.   In this column, I will select my fantasy football MVP's by position. If you had one or more of these players on your team, you probably won your league.

QB - Cam Newton
It was tough to not select either Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers considering Brees broke Dan Marino's single season passing yardage record and Rodgers had a ridiculous TD-INT ratio (45-6), but for me the hands down MVP for not only at QB, but for all fantasy football this year was rookie Cam Newton.    The main reason was value. If you drafted Aaron Rodgers you invested a first round pick. If you drafted Drew Brees you invested a second or third round pick.   Cam Newton went undrafted in some leagues.   An excellent game for a QB I would say is 300 yards, 3TD. In standard scoring leagues that is 24 pts.   Newton had 24 or more points in 8 games this year. Only Aaron Rodgers had more with 9 games.   Cam did the majority of his damage on the ground where he was second in the NFL in rushing TD's with 14.

What can we expect from Newton in 2012? Newton's value headed into 2012 is going to be pretty high. I'd probably rank him #4 headed into next season, but with that being said I am steering clear of Newton. QB is a very deep position, and I feel the top of the draft you are better off going RB/WR and saving your QB for later where you can get an Eli Manning or Philip Rivers. You can't bank on Cam getting double digit rushing touchdowns.   Without Cam's rushing touchdowns he equals someone like Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is probably going in the 6th round or later next season. Newton was a great story in 2011, but too much risk heading into next season for me.

RB - Marshawn Lynch
LeSean McCoy was the best RB in football this year, but when fantasy teams needed him most during their championship game McCoy was a disappointment.   Most fantasy championships are in Week 16, McCoy put up 5 points and if you were unlucky enough to have a Week 17 championship you got a goose egg.   Making the playoffs means nothing if you can't bring home the hardware, and Marshawn Lynch was the most consistent RB in the NFL the second half of the season, and was a beast in the playoffs with solid 19,17, & 20 pt games. (using my standard 1/2 pt per reception scoring).   Lynch was 2nd in the NFL in rushing TD's and finished 7th in rushing yards.   Just like Newton, Lynch was a bargain on draft days. Lynch was being selected in the 5th/6th rounds, and if you had impatient owners in your league, which I did in one of mine, could have found Lynch on waivers where he only averaged 5 pts a game for the first 3 games.

What can we expect from Lynch in 2012?   More Skittles in the endzone. I would feel more confident drafting Lynch then I would Cam Newton next year in the second round. Lynch is in one of those situations that is rare now in the NFL where he is the primary running back. I think a repeat perfomance of this year is very likely.

WR - Calvin Johnson
This was a toss up for me between Johnson and Giants WR Victor Cruz. There is no doubt that Cruz was the free agent pickup of the year as he was not drafted in any standard leagues this year.   Johnson was the first half best WR hands down. He had huge game after huge game. In November through early December though he wasn't his usual self though. What put Johnson over the edge for me was his Week 15 performance, which is most leagues semi final round.   You win your semi final matchup and you are in the cash guaranteed. You have to get into the finals to win it all, and Johnson more then likely won this week for you with his 9 rec 214 yds 2 TD performance which resulted in 37.9 pts.   Cruz was a great story for sure, but I think Johnson was well worth the first round pick that you took him in.

What can we expect from Johnson in 2012?   There is no doubt in my mind that Johnson is the #1 fantasy WR going into 2012.   The big question is though, how early do you take him? There is no set rule that you have to draft a RB with a top 5 pick, and in fact if you look at the top 5 guys drafted this year. Only 3 of the 5 panned out. The 6th player drafted Michael Vick also had a disappointing year.   Calvin Johnson will be a top 5 pick for me next year, and he will live up to the pick. Bank on it.

TE - Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski had a monster year. He set the NFL record for TD's by Tight Ends in a single season. He also led the entire league in receiving touchdowns as well.   The fact that Gronkowski was drafted so late in drafts adds even more value.   Mike Sims-Walker was being drafted before him. Gronkowski like Calvin Johnson saved his best for the playoffs in Week 14 where he had 31 pts, 6 rec 160 yds TD.   Gronkowski was unstoppable this season.

What can we expect from Gronkowski in 2012?   I believe the days of waiting until the end of the 3rd, early 4th round to take the elite TE are over. I believe both Gronkowski & Saints TE Jimmy Graham could and should be drafted as early as the 2nd round. Gronkowski scored over double the amount of points then the 12th best TE this year.   My wait for RB's strategy didn't work last year, mainly due to injury, but a Johnson/Gronk 1-2 would be awesome.

So what are your thoughts?

2012 NFL Wildcard Weekend

2012-01-02T14:05:00.000-08:00

It's playoff time, and that means it's time to break down the games for this coming weekend.

#6 Cincinnati at #3 Houston
I love the Texans at home in this one. They have a pair of running backs who eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark for the season, and most importantly a strong defense for really the first time in franchise history. Gary Kubiak's job was saved this year by Wade Phillips.   If Houston was fully healthy, they would be the team to beat in my opinion in the AFC. They are strong across the board at every facet of the game. With T.J. Yates at QB though, this will limit the Texans chances to go deep in the playoffs. With this being Houston's first ever home playoff game, I expect them to come out strong, plus the Bengals are 1-7 versus teams with a winning record this year. Kudos for a great season for Marvin Lewis and the Bengals, but it's the end of the road for them in Houston.   Houston wins 24-17

#5 Pittsburgh at #4 Denver
Tebow time in prime time, and thankfully the Tebow era will come to an end. Tebow and the Broncos are going to have a real hard time moving the ball against this Steelers defense, and this isn't even one of the better defensive Steelers teams.   The only chance Denver has on this one is for them to come up with huge plays on defense & special teams. I just don't see this happening this week. Tebow was great story this season, but Tebowmania is officially over after this game.   I think Tebow is going to make 3-4 mistakes, give the Steelers a short field and the Steelers will capitalize on those opportunities. Pittsburgh even without Mendenhall will roll. Steelers win 23-6

#6 Detroit at #3 New Orleans
Detroit blew it this past week vs Matt Flynn and the Packers. Nobody wants to play the Saints at home right now. Drew Brees and the Saints offense is clicking on all cylinders. The only way to beat the Saints is to beat them in a shoot out. When you get opportunities versus the Saints in the redzone, you have to convert those to TD's and not FG's. Detroit is 4th in the NFL in converting TD's in the redzone.   Detroit is also 3rd in the NFC in takeaways while New Orleans is last. This game is going to be closer then people think, although I think Detroit's inexperience will be their downfall. Saints in a shootout 37-31

#5 Atlanta at #4 NY Giants

The AFC games are stinkers this week. Thank god we have two exciting NFC matchups. I am not counting out the Falcons in this one, but this Giants team have something special going on right now. Everything seems to be going right for them. Eli Manning has been playing well enough down the stretch, and he always turns it on come playoff time. Atlanta has gotten away from their bread & butter which was always running the football. I don't believe that their rushing attack is back because Michael Turner had a big game last week vs the Bucs. Both teams have mediocre pass defenses, and both teams will be tested down field, but I think the difference in this one is the Giants ability to rush the passer where they were 2nd in the NFL this year. I can see a big Matt Ryan fumble from a JPP sack being the difference in this one. I think the Giants win with a 4th qtr comeback. Giants 30-27

NBA Picks 1/2/12

2012-01-02T10:06:00.000-08:00

All you Boston backers last night almost got the dreaded moose. The Celtics were up 15 with 2 minutes to go and the Wizards scored the last 7 in the game, but the Celtics hung on to win by 8 and cover by a 1/2 pt. It would have been nice to be on the other end of that game though. The Wizards kill me again.

The Bulls on the other hand destroyed the Grizzlies and that was a nice win.   The Clippers/Trail Blazers was a low scoring affair as predicted and I went 2-1 for the night.   I have been on a semi roll lately getting out of that early season hole.

YTD 13-9

Totals 5-2

Moneyline 0-2

Unites +8.7

On to today's picks.

Milwaukee +5.5 (3 units)

This is Denver's third straight game, and they have played 5 games in their past 6 days.   I think Denver comes out a little flat here, and the Bucks may shock the Nuggets on the road.

Golden St./Phoenix O192 (3 units)

The unders have been hitting this year at about a 60% clip, but this one is too low. Both Phoenix and Golden St. can score with the best of em. These two teams have combined for more then 192 points in their past 10 meetings. Phoenix is rested, and Golden St. should have a healthy lineup for this one.

Atlanta +10 (2 units)

Atlanta is one of the few teams in the Eastern Conference that can match Miami's athleticism. I love the Hawks getting double digit points in this one.   Miami is looking like a force to be reckoned with this year, but after a huge blowout win over Charlotte, I think they could actually be in trouble in this one. The ML on this one is very juicy.

Atlanta ML +475 (1/2 unit)

Milwaukee ML +175 (1/2 unit)

Best of luck today.

NFC - A Look Back at the Yearly Predictions

2012-01-01T20:21:00.000-08:00

Unlike the AFC predictions, my NFC predictions were mediocre. I only had 3 of the 6 playoff teams correct. There were no fantasy predictions due to Hurricane Irene.

My NFC projections can be found HERE

NFC East Projected Finish
1. Philly 11-5
2. Dallas 10-6
3. NY Giants 7-9
4. Washington 7-9

NFC East Actual Finish
1. NY Giants 9-7
2. Philly 8-8
3. Dallas 8-8
4. Washington 5-11

Philly was just plain awful during the middle of the season. Injuries killed them on offense, losing Vick & Maclin for some time, and their linebackers are horrible. Dallas = paper champs, ton of talent. The Garrett ERA should be over. Bring in a high profile coach like Jeff Fisher. The Giants had a ton of injuries going into the season, but still managed to win the division. It was a great job by Tom Coughlin this year. If the Redskins stuck with Rex Grossman, I think they would have been a win or two better. Margin of Error on the NFC East picks was 9.

NFC North Projected Finish
1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Detroit 9-7
3. Chicago 8-8
4. Minnesota 4-12

NFC North Actual Finish
1. Green Bay 15-1
2. Detroit 10-6
3. Chicago 8-8
4. Minnesota 3-13

This was the only of the 4 divisions where I projected the right order of finish. Margin of error was 4.

NFC South Projected Finish
1. New Orleans 11-5
2. Atlanta 10-6
3. Tampa Bay 8-8
4. Carolina 4-12

NFC South Actual Finish
1. New Orleans 13-3
2. Atlanta 10-6
3. Carolina 6-10
4. Tampa Bay 4-12

I flipped flopped Carolina & Atlanta. Cam Newton wins NFL ROY hands down, as Andy Dalton & AJ Green both will cancel votes out from one another. Tampa Bay collapse is the biggest shock in this division.
Margin of error was 8.

NFC West Projected Finish
1. St.Louis 9-7
2. San Fransisco 6-10
3. Arizona 5-11
4. Seattle 4-12

NFC West Actual Finish
1. San Fransisco 13-3
2. Arizona 8-8
3. Seattle 7-9
4. St.Louis 2-14

My biggest miss of the year was with the NFC West. I missed both the Rams & 49ers record by 7 games! Jim Harbaugh is the Coach of the Year in the NFL. St.Louis needs some serious help. I like Sam Bradford but he regresed this year. Margin of error was 20. Yikes

NFC Projected Playoffs
1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Philly 11-5
3. New Orleans 11-5
4. St.Louis 9-7
5. Dallas 10-6
6. Atlanta 10-6

(1) Green Bay over (5) Dallas to head to the Super Bowl

NFC Actual Playoffs
1. Green Bay 15-1
2. San Fransisco 13-3
3. New Orleans 13-3
4. NY Giants 9-7
5. Atlanta 10-6
6. Detroit 10-6

I had some decent picks in the NFC, but as a whole I would say I missed the mark.

AFC- A Look Back at the Yearly Predictions

2012-01-01T19:36:00.000-08:00

It is always fun to look back, at the predictions you made in the preseason to see how you did for the year. Sometimes you look like a genius, and sometimes you look like a complete idiot. Lets take a look back to see if I am the man or the sultan of suck.

AFC East Predicted Finish
1. New Enland 13-3
2. NY Jets 9-7
3. Miami 5-11
4. Buffalo 5-11

AFC East Actual Finish
1. New England 13-3
2. NY Jets 8-8
3. Miami 6-10
4. Buffalo 6-10

I was pretty spot on with my picks here. I went out on a limb, and said the Jets would miss the playoffs and was right. Margin of error was 4. Pretty damn good, I guess it pays living in the Northeast and getting these teams shoved down our throats on a weekly basis.

Let's take a look and see how my fantasy spins did.

Fantasy Spin: As much as I like Chad Ochocinco in New England with Brady, I am passing on him as I think he is being over drafted with the expectations that he is going to have a monster Moss like year. Brady has too many weapons especially in the redzone where he likes to hit his TE.

Fantasy Spin: Dustin Keller, not Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards led the team in receptions last year. I think Keller is going to have an even better year this year. TE is very deep, so if you don't get one of the elite 3, there is nothing wrong with drafting Keller late as your starter.

Fantasy Spin: Miami has stated that they plan on using Reggie Bush in the passing game more this year. If Bush can get 8-10 carries and 5-7 targets in the passing game then Bush could be a very sneaky low end RB2 or Util option this year.

Fantasy Spin: Honestly, there is not one player on Buffalo I am remotely targeting. Fred Jackson is getting drafted too early, and I can't buy into CJ Spiller just yet.

I would give myself a 7 out of 10 here. Ochocinco was awful, Brady liked to hit the TE in the redzone so much that Gronkowski broke the NFL record this year. Keller's season was a wash, about the same numbers as he had in 2010. Reggie Bush was a pleasant surprise and arguably NFL comeback player of the year. Fred Jackson was tearing it up this year. He was one of the leagues best backs before he was lost for the year.

AFC North Projected Finish
1. Baltimore 12-4
2. Pittsburgh 10-6
3. Cleveland 7-9
4. Cincinnati 3-13

AFC North Actual Finish
1. Baltimore 12-4
2. Pittsburgh 12-4
3. Cincinnati 9-7
4. Cleveland 4-12

Well I predicted the division winners record exactly. I was totally wrong about the Bengals. I wasn't expecting Andy Dalton to have such a good season. Margin of error was 11.

Let's take a look and see how my fantasy spins did.

Fantasy Spin: When all things are done at the end of the year I expect Ray Rice to be the #1 back in fantasy football.

Fantasy Spin: Ben Roethlisberger is currently ranked in the top 10 going into the year. (currently 8 on ESPN.com) I feel that Big Ben will be out of the top 12 at the end of the season.

Fantasy Spin: Madden Cover Jinx! Beware Peyton Hillis owners. This is one jinx that always seems to be spot on.

Fantasy Spin: Cedric Benson is being under looked in fantasy drafts. Maybe, partly due to his legal troubles. Benson is one of the few backs in the NFL that carries the majority of the load. He won't get you flashy numbers, but consistent scoring each week.

I give myself a 7 out of 10. Rice was nasty this year and was arguably the top back. (depending on your scoring) Big Ben was right around 12th. Peyton Hillis was a bust, and Cedric Benson was pretty consistent this year.

AFC South Projected Finish
1. Houston 10-6
2. Tennessee 9-7
3. Indianapolis 8-8
4. Jacksonville 5-11

AFC South Actual Finish
1. Houston 10-6
2. Tennessee 9-7
3. Jacksonville 5-11
4. Indianapolis 2-14

I nailed 3 teams records exactly, and the Colts pre season pick was made before the news of Peyton Manning being likely out for the whole season. The prediction was solely based on him missing the first month of the season. Margin of error was 6.

Let's take a look and see how my fantasy spins did.

Fantasy Spin: With Arian Foster's hamstring issues, it would be wise to invest in some Houston RB's. Look out for second year RB Ben Tate. Tate could be a draft day steal.

Fantasy Spin: Jared Cook as mentioned above is a deep sleeper at TE. You're not gonna draft him in the Top 12 now, but by years end it wouldn't shock me to see him in the Top 10.

Fantasy Spin: You obviously have to drop all Colts players down a few notches. One guy I am staying clear of is Dallas Clark. Clark has no business being selected in the top 3 this year.

Fantasy Spin: MJD for me is not a top back anymore. He has dropped to that 2nd tier of backs. If you have a mid round pick, go Andre Johnson, Vick/Rodgers before reaching on MJD.

I give myself a 5 out of 10 again here. Ben Tate had a monster season, and Dallas Clark was awful this year. Jared Cook was a ghost but if you played him in your fantasy playoffs you'd be happy. MJD just led the league in rushing. I guess he isn't done. Oops.

AFC West Projected Finish
1. San Diego 11-5
2. Oakland 8-8
3. Kansas City 7-9
4. Denver 5-11

AFC West Actual Finish
1. Denver 8-8
2. San Diego 8-8
3. Oakland 8-8
4. Kansas City 7-9

I was exactly right with Oakland & Kansas City's record, but the Chargers & Broncos predictions were both off by 3 games each. The Chargers are definitely one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year. Margin of error: 6

Let's take a look and see how my fantasy spins did.

Fantasy Spin: Until we see how the Tolbert/Mathews situation plays out I can't draft either of them. I also think Vincent Jackson & Antonio Gates are going to have huge years. Gates is slipping in some drafts due to injury concerns. (I also predicted Rivers to break Marino's record)

Fantasy Spin: Dwayne Bowe may have even more redzone targets with Tony Moeaki out for the season. I could see a repeat performance from Bowe. Keep an eye out for Jonathan Baldwin as well.

Fantasy Spin: I like Eric Decker as a sleeper to eventually become a good #2 WR behind Brandon Lloyd. Decker is going undrafted in most leagues.

I give myself a 4 out of 10 here, plus I didn't have one listed for Oakland at all. Gates & Jackson had solid years, not huge. Pretty much as expected for them. Bowe had 5 TD's this year, but losing Matt Cassel didn't help. Eric Decker was having a pretty under the radar year until they went with Tebow at QB.

AFC Projected Playoffs

1. New England 13-3
2. Baltimore 12-4
3. San Diego 11-5
4. Houston 10-6
5. Pittsburgh 10-6
6. Tennessee 9-7

(3) San Diego over (1) New England in AFC Championship

Obviously, I was wrong with San Diego, but pretty impressive that I nailed the #1, #2, #4, #5 seeds exactly, and Tennessee was one Jets win away today from making the playoffs.

For a whole I think I was pretty spot on with my AFC picks this year.

NBA Picks 1/1/12

2012-01-01T04:54:00.000-08:00

After a rocky start, I am finally getting on track and I finished the year off with a 3-0 night. I am finally playing with the houses money.

YTD 11-8
Totals 4-2
Moneyline 0-2
Units +6.9

Today, there is a good amount of games on tap, but there isn't much that stands out.   I am going to play it conservative today.

Chicago -7.5 (2 units)
This is Chicago's home opener after a long 4 game road trip to start the season. Memphis starting point guard Mike Conley is questionable for this game, and I'd probably expect him to miss it with an akle injury. I think it would be wise considering Derrick Rose on the other side and how quick he is.   I like Memphis, they have a solid playoff team, but Chicago is too much at home.

Washington +7.5 (2 units)
Boston is 0-3 so far on the road this season.   They do have Paul Pierce back, but 5 games in a week for a team as old as Boston has got to be tough. I think this game will come down to the wire, and the Wizards should cover here.

LA Clippers team total under 101.5 (2 units)
The Clippers tried to run with the Bulls the other night and they got run out of the building. Right now, the Clippers are not a championship team. I do believe they have the pieces in play, and as long as they can stay healthy will have a great shot in the playoffs. They just don't have the chemistry now, and I think the Blazers will be tough tonight.

Best of luck!

NBA Picks 12/31/11

2011-12-31T13:50:00.000-08:00

Back to .500 and it feels great, after going 2-1 in my picks last night.   Tonight I have a good card as well, and hoping to finish the year in the positive heading into 2012.

YTD Record 8-8
Totals 2-2
Moneyline 0-2
Units = -1.1

Todays picks...

Suns/Thunder O200 (3 units)
This is going to be a tough game for the Suns. Russell Westbrook has struggled a bit this season, but he should have a monster game tonight against the Suns who have nobody that can stick him.   This is Oklahoma City's 5th game of the season (tops in the NBA) and I think their legs will be a little tired on the defensive end. Phoenix has struggled scoring this year, but I think they will score plenty tonight.

New York -1 (3 units)
The Knicks have looked dreadful this current road trip, and Sacramento can be a tricky team at home, they did beat the Lakers there already. I think Melo has a huge night, and Amare finally gets out of his funk and the Knicks take care of business.

San Antonio Team total under 105.5 (2 units)
I think the Spurs slow down the pace tonight against the Jazz. I see this game being around total 190 points. I think the safer play is with San Antonio team total under, then game under. I think the Jazz can keep this one close. The Spurs haven't beaten the Jazz by this margin since 2008.

Best of Luck tonight.   Happy New Year.

NBA Picks - 12/30/11

2011-12-29T19:31:00.001-08:00

Well, not a bad day in the office with picks. I just can't seem to get back to back good nights. Houston, LA Lakers, Dallas & The Over in the Sac/Chi game were all winners. A last second Kevin Durant 3 killed my Dallas moneyline play, and 2 points killed my Sacramento play. Still 4-1 on picks on the night.

YTD Record 6-7
Totals 1-2
Moneyline 0-2
Units Total -4.9

Miami/Minnesota U208.5 (3 units)
Seems like too many points here. I see this game being around 105-95 range.

Utah +3.5 (3 units)
I like Utah to pick up their first win at home tonight.

LA Clippers -1 (2 units)
Fading the Bulls on BTB nights, and game 4 of their current road trip.

These are the morning plays, may add a play tonight. Best of luck

NBA Picks - 12/29/11

2011-12-29T03:52:00.000-08:00

Luckily, its a long season because my picks are stinking right now going 0-3 last night dropping my record to 2-6 for the season. This is one of those reason's why bankroll management is key. If I was playing above my limit, I'd probably be broke right now. The play might b

YTD Record 2-6
Totals 0-2
Moneyline 0-1
UTD = -11.6

Today's Picks

LA Lakers -3.5 (3 units)
The Knicks looked bad, real bad last night in the 2nd half. Now they are on back to back nights playing the Lakers. Perhaps, the Knicks were looking ahead to the matchup tonight against the Lakers, or maybe they are not that good...

Dallas +6.5 (3 units)
Dallas has looked bad this year, but 6-1/2 pts is a lot of points. Dallas is fresh, they haven't played in 2 nights, and OKC just played last night. I may dabble with a moneyline play here as I think Dallas can win outright.

Houston +3.5 (2 units)
I like Houston at home to beat the Spurs. BTB games for a team that is one of the oldest teams in the league. Houston has young fresh legs, and should give the Spurs troubles tonight.

Sacramento +8 (2 units) O185
I like the Kings and the points at home. I think this will be a high scoring game as well.

Dallas moneyline +190 (1 unit)

NBA Picks - 12/28/11

2011-12-27T19:22:00.001-08:00

2-0 with my picks from yesterday. I did lose 1 unit on a moneyline play on the Timberwolves. I probably should have lost the bet as well, but the Wolves battled back in the 4th qtr to cover which was nice.

Didn't see much of the Atlanta/New Jersey game, but borrowing a quote from Dennis Green the Nets are who we that they are. They had no business coming back and beating the Wizards at home, and they had no business getting only 4-1/2 pts versus a very good Hawks team. Atlanta has a very good starting five, their bench however is pretty weak. In a condensed season, and with injuries they are going to struggle at times.

YTD Record 2-3
Totals 0-1
Moneyline 0-1
UTD = -3.8

Todays Picks....

NY Knicks -2.5 (3 units)
I like the Knicks on the road here. The Warriors just played a great game the other night in a win versus the Bulls, but Stephen Curry rolled his ankle in the 4th qtr in this game and will likely miss this game. This leaves the Warriors with 3 inexperienced guards to suit up next to Monta Ellis. Charles Jenkins (22),Klay Thompson (21), Ishmael Smith (23). Ellis will probably switch over to point, Dorrell Wright over to SG, and we should see a lot more of Brandon Rush if not starting this contest at SF. The depth though without Curry in the back court will kill the Warriors in this one.

San Antonio/LA CLippers Under 195.5 (3 units)
I have the LA Clippers going to the NBA Finals this year. I really like the three key additions they made CP3, Billups & Caron Butler. Butler especially as he plays great defense and is a scorer. He has come back player of the year written all over him. I think this line though is a little too high. San Antonio can still be a defensive machine. My only worry with this under is that I expect this game to be very close, and always dread the possible overtime to kill the under. OT is the only way I see this game going over though. Solid play on the under here.

Above were morning plays, I put in. The lines have changed since then.
One more tonight...

Boston -3 (2 units)
No way I can see Boston falling to 0-3. They have too much talent, and New Orleans should not be a tough test for them. Losing CP3/West was huge. I love Eric Gordon, but I think the Celts win here in a close contest.

Week 17 - NFL Picks

2011-12-27T17:20:00.000-08:00

I had another 2-1 week thanks to the Vikings & Jaguars raising my yearly record to 27-19-2. Picking games in week 17 is tricky due to some teams resting players so I generally only pick meaningful games.

This weeks picks....

Dallas +3
Dallas should have beat the Giants in their first meeting and blew it. Both teams have issues on defense, but Eli Manning has been struggling as of late while Tony Romo has been on a roll. I think the Cowboys have too many weapons on offense, and I see them coming up big an winning the division on the final day on the road.

Tennessee -2.5
The Titans need to win and get some help to get in. Houston has nothing to play for whatsoever other then to end Tennessee's playoff chances on Sunday. If you think of it, What team out of the teams fighting for a playoff spot would you MOST want to play. Probably the Titans, as they are probably the worst of the bunch on paper. If the Titans snuck into the playoffs, you are looking at the same exact game, same exact location for the playoffs the following week as the #3 seed vs #6 seed. Houston is going to have a dumbed down game plan this week, so they don't show Tennessee too many things for the following week, if it turns out that way. I think the Titans handle their business here. 23-17

Baltimore -2
The Ravens have a lot to play for this week, if they want that #2 seed, and the Bengals are fighting for that last playoff berth. The Ravens have looked pretty average the past few weeks, but I think they get their act together this week and win a game against a very hungry Bengals team. A first round bye and home field advantage is crucial for the Ravens especially this year since they have sucked on the road. (losing to Jacksonville, Tennessee, Seattle) all teams they should beat. Ravens win this one on the road though, and I believe will be a tough out in the playoffs in the AFC. Ravens 26-23

Best of luck this week!

NBA Picks - 12/27/11

2011-12-26T18:48:00.000-08:00

Well, Day 1 in the books and I'm off to a terrible start for the year. The Wizards were absolutely brutal after the 1st qtr. They blew a 20+ point lead in this one. They got out rebounded 58-39. The Wiz were awful from the charity stripe shooting 61.8% from the line. John Wall especially who must have been practicing free throws with Rajon Rondo in the offseason.

The Mavericks championship hangover continued as well. Ty Lawson looks like a superstar in the making. Losing Tyson Chandler in the middle was killer for the Mavs, and don't forget Caron Butler who is very good on D. I didn't know Mike D'antoni's twin brother coached for Dallas. Absolute joke performance.

The late game on the card was pretty frustrating losing by a couple of points. I was right with the Warriors big 3 shooters getting back on track, but didn't count on a 4-17 performance from Derrick Rose.

YTD Record 0-3
Moneyline 0-0
Totals 0-1
Units -7.7

Today there is a small card, but there are some good plays out there.

Atlanta -4 (3 units)
I really like Atlanta in this spot. New Jersey outside of D-Will is going to have problems all year scoring. Atlanta unlike Washington will attack on defense and make Williams push the ball over half court on each possession. Williams logged 36 minutes in last nights contest. Atlanta is very big & athletic. They will handle the Nets on the boards and take the game.

Minnesota +6.5 (2 units)
Too many points here. Both teams playing on back to back nights. This is going to be a problem for the Bucks all year for their big man Andrew Bogut who doesn't have the durability to play in these games. Bogut I will be shocked if he plays 50 games this season. Minnesota is young and hungry, I like them to win this game outright as well.

Minnesota ML +200(1 unit)
T-wolves with the out right win.

NBA Picks - 12/26/11

2011-12-26T12:26:00.000-08:00

Today's Picks

Washington -3.5 (3 units)
The loss of Brook Lopez is going to hurt the Nets in this one. I like the Wizards back court with Wall/Young/Crawford and they will be able to get to the basket and make some uncontested shots. Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Chicago/Golden St. Over 194.5 (2 units)
The Warriors will push the tempo here as much as possible versus one of the leagues best defenses. The trio of Ellis/Curry/Wright went 1-15 from downtown last night versus the Clippers. That won't happen on back to back nights, plus the Warriors are still mediocre on defense.

Dallas -3.5 (2 units)
I normally don't like picking teams on back to back games especially after a loss. Dallas also has one of the oldest teams in the league. The average age for their 5 starters is 34. Normally this may have some play during the year, but the Mavericks legs should still be fresh.

YTD Record 0-0
Moneyline 0-0
Totals 0-0
Units - Even

Best of Luck

NBA Picks are back!

2011-12-26T10:47:00.001-08:00

A few years back I had a website called Picksixsports.com...I basically just ran out of time to do it the way I wanted to, so I shut it down. My record though was pretty impressive in regards to betting on basketball. I may plan on bringing the site back, or a new site back in the future, but for now plan on delivering free picks.

The picks will be different then my football picks as those are for Eat Drink and Sleep Football. Nothing is off limits, totals, prop bets, halfs/qtrs. Also instead of just a W-L record, I will have a unit system. 1 unit being a small play up to 5 units being my max play.

A standard line is about -110. For you rookies, that means you will be risking $110 to win $100 (or whatever you are betting) If you bet an underdog to win (moneyline)and the line is +130, that means you are risking $100 to win $130. I will keep my bets in incriments of $100 for entertainment purposes and easier tracking. ; )

The key to sports wagering is bankroll management. When I used to play A LOT of online poker this is the first thing I learned. In the beginning I deposited $100 a week, played at small stakes tables .50/$1 limit holdem. I played nightly, and usually had around $150 come the weekend. Then the weekend came, boozing at the bars until close, and then why not play some online poker when I get back home. In the morning when I rolled over and glanced at the computer screen, I would see a big fat $0 in my online account. Rinse and repeat for a couple of months, it was pretty disgusting. I would come home and decide, why not try my luck at $5/$10 holdem. Of course it was a bad idea, not just because I was hammered and making stupid decisions but because bad beats are inevitable in any kind of gambling. Someone hitting a 2 outter on the river, or your full house busted by quads. It happens.
When I only had a bankroll of $150, and I was playing at a table where I only have 15 big blinds ($10) and get one of these bad beats it is very hard to recover from. If I was playing within my bankroll, then these bad beats wouldn't hurt as much because I know in the long run I was going to win.

This is the #1 flaw most people have when it comes to gambling. In poker they say you should have at least 200 big blinds to play at a level. So if I am going to play $1/$2 poker, I should have at least $400 to play. I learned this with time, and instead of coming home at 4am and playing high stakes drunken poker, I passed on it completely. I ended up winning some good money online including winning a tournament of like 800 players that paid me $1000 that cost me $6 to enter. The whole poker thing though to me became to much of a grind though, so I quit for good about 2 years before it got outlawed.

There is nothing better then watching sports with money on the line. It could be $5 or $500. The amount doesn't matter. Money makes it that much more fun. Do we love fantasy football because we love the fact of just playing GM and building your own team, or do we love it because there is money on the line and we want to win that money? Free fantasy sports to be me are lame. Who cares. Put a measily $20 up for a season and a chance to win $120 or whatever, and I am hooked for the whole season.
Do I care about watching the Little Caesars Bowl? Absolutely not, but if there is money on the line it will definitely peak my interest.

So back on the topic of bankroll management, for sports wagering I recommend at least 50 bets. If you only have $500 to gamble on football for the season, you should be making $10 bets not $50 bets. What happens is more times then not, you will hear someone say can't miss game of the year and instead betting your normal $50, you will do 4-5 times this amount and blow half of your load on 1 game. Then, the person will reload and the same thing will happen over and over. Play within your bankroll. If you want to bet $50 a game, because $10 doesn't get your adrenaline going enough then you should be playing with a $2500 bankroll.

The magic number when it comes to sports betting is 52.5%. This is the percent of the games you need to win to come out ahead. This # is of course based on every bet being exactly the same size for the year. So for example, if you bet $110 a game to win $100(standard -110) and go 54-46 for the season (just 8 games over .500) You would win $5400 for your wins, and lose $5060 for a positive net gain of $360, or 3.6 units. If you go 58% for the year then you would be positive $1180 or 11.8 units. Anything over 60% is amazing, and is rarely accomplished. Kevin at EDS football is at 70% for the season which would be $3700 gain or 37 units. Seasons like this are very rare, and anyone who claims they have been handicapping at levels this high every year are full of shit.

Remember slow and steady wins the race.

My first batch of NBA picks for the 2011-2012 season coming soon!

NBA - Season Predictions

2011-12-26T08:04:00.000-08:00

I'm pretty pumped that the NBA season is underway. I will be rolling out my first ever NBA predictions, plus I plan on doing NBA picks and power rankings as well throughout the year. On to the predictions.

Eastern Conference

1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. New York
4. Boston
5. Philly
6. Orlando
7. Atlanta
8. Milwaukee

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City
2. LA Lakers
3. LA Clippers
4. Dallas
5. San Antonio
6. Memphis
7. Portland
8. Utah

Eastern Conference Playoffs

Miami over Milwaukee
Chicago over Atlanta
New York over Orlando
Philly over Boston

Miami over Philly
Chicago over New York

Miami over Chicago

Western Conference Playoffs

Oklahoma City over Utah
LA Lakers over Portland
LA Clippers over Memphis
Dallas over San Antonio

Dallas over Oklahoma City
LA Clippers over LA Lakers

LA Clippers over Dallas

NBA Finals

Miami over LA Clippers

NBA MVP - Kevin Durant
NBA ROY - Kemba Walker
Coach - Vinny Del Negro
Finals MVP - Lebron James

Week 16 - NFL Picks

2011-12-23T11:08:00.000-08:00

It was one of the worst Sundays I have had in awhile. I was preparing for another trip for work, and our dryer died. Then 4 hours later, my Titans blew there chances at the playoffs when they lost to the Colts. It was pretty damn bad day in this house. My picks didn't do much better either going 1-2 for the week, but I do have a good 25-18-2 record for the season. I liked Houston on Thursday night, but luckily for me, I didn't make it home in time to make it official.

This weeks write up is a little short due to the holidays. Here are your holiday winners, all dogs...

Minnesota +6.5
The Redskins have been playing better as of late, but I like the Vikings on the road getting almost a TD. Adrian Peterson will be back this week and I think that makes a difference in this one. Redskins win though 21-17

Jacksonville +8
Donald Brown ran all over this Titans defense last week. MJD will do the same this week. Jake Locker has surpassed Matt Hasselbeck as the best QB on the team, yet Munch is going with Hass if healthy. Chris Johnson is hit or miss, and I think it is another miss game out of him. Titans win in a FG kicking contest 18-16

San Diego +2
Both of these teams need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. Detroit does have a little cushion though, but they battle the Packers next week so they need a win here. San Diego has been red hot lately and I think they continue their streak with a win in Detroit. I also like the over in this matchup as well. It is at 52 right now. I think this is a game full of big plays. Rivers/Stafford light up the scoreboard, but the Chargers pull it off on a final minute TD drive 38-34

Happy Holidays to All!

Week 15 - NFL Picks

2011-12-16T18:08:00.001-08:00

Marion Barber III had to be the sickest man in America Sunday after he blew a must win game for the Bears on Sunday. Tebow nation and the Broncos will have a tough matchup versus the Pats this week though. As for the other NFC North team, the Detroit Lions they got a gift when a clear face mask penalty was missed, but yet they can call a penalty when someone just gets nicked in the head by a hand. This past week probably decided the final team in the NFC playoffs.

I went 2-1 this past weekend improving my yearly record to 24-16-2.

This weeks picks are...

Green Bay -13.5
Kansas City hasn't scored more then 10 points in a game since October, and now they face the league's best offense. Not sure how this game is less then 2 touchdowns.
I think this line should be around 17-1/2 pts. This is a gift folks, and you won't get a game like this often. The Packers won't miss Greg Jennings this week, as they are very deep at WR. Rodgers will have a big day picking apart a banged up Chiefs defense and the Packers should win this one with ease. I like the Packers big on the road. 34-10

Philly -2.5
The Eagles start their spoiling this weekend with a win over the Jets. I also expect very close games with the Giants & Cowboys as well this weekend, so this is a must win for the Eagles if they want any chance at coming back in the NFC East. Stranger things have happened, and both the Giants & Cowboys schedules are difficult the final three weeks. Mark Sanchez and the Jets have been on a mini roll lately, but that was against pretty bad competition. On paper the Eagles crush the Bills, Redskins & Chiefs. This game might be for Andy Reid's job and I see the Eagles stepping up at home and winning this one late. 24-20.

Tampa Bay +7
Dallas doesn't have that killer instinct to put away people when they are up. We saw it last week versus the Giants and we will see it again this week on the road in Tampa. Tampa has lost 7 straight games and is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, BUT I think with a healthy Josh Freeman back, and being a prime time game they will keep this game close if not win it outright. Just when you thought Dallas was getting healthy getting Miles Austin back, they lost rookie RB Demarco Murray for the season. They are a different team with Felix Jones as the primary ball carrier thats for sure. They go from a well balanced offense, to more of a one dimensional passing offense. I am calling for the Bucs in an upset on another FG winner, this time in overtime. 23-20

Week 14 - NFL Picks

2011-12-09T19:04:00.000-08:00

How bout them Cowboys. I should be shot for picking the Cowboys once again. The good part about this past week though was they actually lost outright and didn't win and just not cover. I am 2-2-1 in picking the Cowboys this season, but winless in my last two. I had another winning overall week though going 2-1 raising my yearly record to a nice 22-15-2 for the season.

This week I like...

New Orleans -3.5
The way New Orleans has been playing lately it is awfully tough to bet against them right now. New Orleans is definitely a different team on grass, but I think with their 3 headed rushing attack, and the way Drew Brees has been playing lately they will win this game and cover. I think the key for the Titans this week is Nate Washington (questionable), who did not practice on Friday. Damian Williams will be the Titans #1. This spells major trouble for the Titans as they will need to have a big game from Matt Hasselbeck and the passing attack to win this one. Tennessee will need either a HUGE came from Chris Johnson, and/or to get a Def/ST TD to have any chance in winning this game. Saints too much for them 31-20

Oakland +12
Call this one a hunch game. I have backed the Packers all season, but I think this game is going to be closer then people think. Oakland will get back to the football that got them to the top of the AFC West and that is with RB Michael Bush. I think Bush is actually going to have a pretty good game here. This game has major let down factor written all over it especially after this past weeks Giants game. I think the Packers are the best team in the NFL by far and will win the Super Bowl this year, but I think Oakland is going to be very tough here. I may even do a small moneyline wager just for fun. Packers 28-24

Chicago +3.5
Tebow-mania is officially over, or at least on hold for 1 more week. Caleb Hanie has looked awful as a NFL starter so far for the injured Jay Cutler, and the Broncos Defense has been great in recent weeks. This may spell disaster for some, but I look at the other side of the ball as well and see an even better Bears defense. Tim Tebow is still Tim Tebow when it comes to throwing the ball, and the Bears are going to give him nightmares. This isn't the Minnesota Vikings Broncos fans. The X factor in this one will be a big Devin Hester return. I think the Bears go into Mile High this weekend and beat the Broncos outright in a low scoring contest 17-13.

Best of luck this week.

Week 13 - NFL Picks

2011-11-30T18:53:00.001-08:00

I've been on a semi roll lately with picks going 2-1 this past week to improve my record to a nice 20-14-2 for the season. This week I have another solid card for you all.

Dallas -4.5
Dallas was my lone loss last week, but I really like them with this small number on the road versus a pretty bad Arizona team. The strength of the Dallas defense is stopping the run which is Arizona's pretty much only way to move the ball. Skelton or Kolb it doesn't matter as the Cards really have no passing attack. Demarcus Ware and company are going to cause trouble all day. Dallas needs a win here, which will give them room for error when they battle the 2nd place Giants who I expect to lose to the Packers this weekend. Dallas 23-17

San Diego -3
I have been burned by the Chargers a couple of times this year, and will man up and say I was wrong about them this year, but the Jaguars are awful. I don't think there is any magic like there was when they beat the Ravens. That was a fluke. This team has problems everywhere. Jack Del Rio was fired this week, and Norv Turner is pretty much a dead man walking in San Diego, but on paper the Chargers are so much better then the Jags at every position. San Diego 27-14

NY Jets -3
This is a must win for the Jets as they are currently 1 game behind in the wild card race. Washington is better then a lot of people think they are. I honestly think if they stuck with Rex Grossman all season that they would have been right in it come playoff time in the NFC especially with all the injuries this year. That being said, I think the Jets go in and win this game on a late Sanchez TD drive. I have a feeling the Jets go on one of their rolls and sneak into the playoffs. The Jets are definitely a team you do not want to see in January. Jets win 20-16

Best of luck this week

Week 13 - NFL Power Rankings

2011-11-27T19:25:00.000-08:00

It's almost Decemeber which means only 2 more months left of football, and no more lazy 12 hour football watching Sundays. You will be missed soon, but I'm sure my wife will be happy to have me back...well maybe not.

On to the power rankings (our consensus ratings found here)

1. Green Bay 11-0
16-0 yes, 19-0 gonna be a test, but I think they can do it.

2. New Orleans 8-3
The only team I think that can beat the Packers in the NFC.

3. Pittsburgh 8-3
Best well balanced team in the AFC. legit D, run game & QB.

4. Baltimore 8-3
Gets up for big games which is good come playoff time.

5. New England 8-3
New England's D has been impressive lately, and Brady has more weapons then ever.

6. San Fransisco 9-2
Not enough offense as above teams. Can't compete in shootout.

7. Dallas 7-4
4 game win streak, although hasn't showed me they are legit contenders yet.

8. Houston 8-3
First Schaub, then Leinart. They will need to rely on D & running game.

9. Oakland 7-4
Could be very dangerous once they get healthy. Palmer has been a big add.

10. Atlanta 7-4
Atlanta coming on strong. Matty Ice playing well.

11. NY Giants 6-5
Tough loss Monday night vs Saints, still in the hunt.

12. NY Jets 6-5
Defense didn't look too sharp, but Sanchez rebounded.

13. Detroit 7-4
Fell flat on their face in a huge spot.

14. Cincinnati 7-4
Andy Dalton under looked as ROY.

15. Chicago 7-4
Bears in trouble without a QB.

16. Tennessee 6-5
Is Chris Johnson finally back on track?

17. Denver 6-5
Tim Tebow strikes again. Denver D playing great

18. San Diego 4-7
Wouldn't shock me to hear of a Rivers injury that has been lingering for weeks.

19. Seattle 4-7
They may have lost this week, but they have looked better as of late.

20. Tampa Bay 4-7
Games like Tennessee they won last year. Freeman regressing. Blount overrated

21. Philly 4-7
Desean would be lucky to get good #2 WR money at this point.

22. Arizona 4-7
Beanie Wells huge in the win this week.

23. Buffalo 5-6
Stevie Johnson = hilarious. too bad he sucks under pressure.

24. Washington 4-7
Would still be in the playoff hunt if Shanny didn't switch to Beck.

25. Miami 3-8
Win streak is over, but future looks bright in Miami, especially on D.

26. Kansas City 4-7
Palko looks horrible, no run game either

27. Carolina 3-8
It was only the Colts, move along, nothing to see here

28. Cleveland 4-7
Showed some fight this weekend versus the Bengals.

29. Jacksonville 3-8
Started the Blaine Gabbert era too soon.

30. Minnesota 2-9
Dreadful performance vs the Falcons.

31. St.Louis 2-9
At least Indy has an excuse for sucking.

32. Indianapolis 0-11
Jim Caldwell should be fired. Team plays with no heart whatsoever.

Biggest Rise: Oakland, Tennessee up 4 spots
Biggest Fall: Chicago down 7 spots

Question of the Week: When will the Packers lose their next game?

When I look at the rest of their schedule, the one game that pops out is next week versus the Giants. The Giants pass rush could give the Packers some problems. They have 3 games at home vs 7-4 teams (Chicago,Oakland & Detroit) but they should handle all of them as they all have question marks. I don't think McCarthy sits his players with home field locked up, so I am going to go out on a limb and call the perfect 19-0 season, although I do think the Pats undefeated team was better then this team.

Week 12 - NFL Picks

2011-11-22T17:40:00.000-08:00

My week 11 picks went a perfect 3-0 over the weekend to increase my yearly record to 18-13-2. Unfortunately, my fantasy football season has pretty much come to an end. This is the first time in over 10 years that I haven't made the playoffs in at least one league, and the first time in 5 years that I did not cash. I guess all good things come to an end eventually.

I got a solid card for Week 12.

Green Bay -6
This game has been circled on the calendar by many as the game where the Packers would get their first loss. I think the Packers although have showed some flaws defensively lately will get it done here. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. I am not drinking the 1 game Kevin Smith Kool-Aid because he had a great game versus an awful run defense in Carolina. Calvin Johnson has been limited with an injury this week and Detroit is just coming off an emotional come back win this past week. Green Bay leads the NFL with 19 picks, and I think Stafford throws 3 Thursday and Rodgers has another huge game. Packers win 41-27

Dallas -7
Here is another nice trend in this one as Dallas is pretty much the exact opposite of Detroit as they are 6-0 ATS in their past 6 Thursday games. This line opened at 9 and then its dropped 2 points which seems pretty odd. Lets not think that Washington giving Dallas a run for their money means anything... It doesn't. The Skins always plays the Cowboys tough. Both teams come into this game with a 3 game winning streak, but lets be real here. The Dolphins and Matt Moore are not a very good team. Dallas has something to prove, and there is no better stage then the late national televised game. I think Dallas comes out firing on all cylinders and wins easily 27-9.

Houston -3.5
I am a believer in the Houston Texans. Losing Matt Schaub for the season hurts, but people forget one key thing in Houston. Their defense is legit. Wade Phillips as DC should get votes for NFL Coach of the Year because he has turned a mediocre defense into the #1 defense in the NFL. Houston has the best 1-2 punch in the NFL I believe with Arian Foster & Ben Tate and they are finally getting Andre Johnson back. Matt Leinart isn't going to be called on to win games by throwing 40+ times. Houston can control the clock and play solid D. This game will make America believers again in the Texans. 24-16 Texans

Best of luck to you, and Happy Thanksgiving to all

Week 12 - NFL Power Rankings

2011-11-21T03:54:00.000-08:00

My preseason prediction of a Cowboys-Packers NFC championship game is looking better each week. Unfortunately my AFC representative and preseason MVP candidate aren't playing good football right now as they sit at the bottom of the AFC West. Go Chargers Go! Fire Norv Turner now. This team needs a fresh start.

On to the power rankings.

1. Green Bay 10-0
No surprise here, but I'd be shocked to see them run the table.

2. San Fransisco 9-1
I am starting to believe in Alex Smith. 49ers D is no joke.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3
Bye week comes up perfect time. Still believe best team in AFC.

4. New Orleans 7-3
If they could figure out their defense, they'd be nasty.

5. Baltimore 7-3
Flacco is a little inconsistent, but defense still plays big.

6. Dallas 6-4
If they had a secondary they would be among the NFL elite.

7. New England 7-3
Patriots would have 2-3 wins tops this year without Brady.

8. Chicago 7-3
Cutler could be out for year. Defense/Special Teams/Forte should get in playoffs.

9. Detroit 7-3
Showed a lot of heart with big comeback. Where's the "D" in Detroit?

10. Houston 7-3
Have the AFC South on cruise control.

11. NY Giants 6-4
Crushing loss versus VY led Eagles.

12. Atlanta 6-4
Big win keeps versus Tennessee, keeps them in the hunt.

13. Oakland 6-4
With a healthy McFadden the Raiders could be sneaky in the playoffs.

14. Cincinnati 6-4
Bengals have slight lead in final wildcard spot in AFC.

15. NY Jets 5-5
Sanchez woes continue. Maybe they should try another USC QB next year?

16. Philly 4-6
Eagles huge win on Sunday Night, will play spoilers the rest of the year.

17. Denver 5-5
Tebow just wins football games, just like Vince Young...

18. San Diego 4-6
I still believe the Chargers can win out and make the playoffs.

19. Tampa Bay 4-6
Bay of Pigs, played the Packers close.

20. Tennessee 5-5
Has the Jake Locker era officially started?

21. Seattle 4-6
Not sure how this team is winning.

22. Buffalo 5-5
Beat the Pats = successful season. Bills fans happy

23. Miami 3-7
Dansby has been right so far.

24. Arizona 3-7
Larry Fitz and nothing else.

25. Washington 3-7
Rex better then Beck. Will be a factor in NFC East as spoiler.

26. Kansas City 4-6
Move along, nothing to see here.

27. Jacksonville 3-7
Say no to Blaine Gabbert! Not sure how they could lose to the Browns

28. Minnesota 2-8
Ponder making mistakes, but he has been good this season.

29. Cleveland 4-6
Peyton Hillis - Madden cover jinx continues. Give it to Brady in 2012!

30. Carolina 2-8
No defense. Cam can't win games by himself....yet

31. St.Louis 2-8
Dreadful performance versus Seattle.

32. Indianapolis 0-10
First overall should be secured soon.

Question of the Week: How many games will the Colts win this season? Will Andrew Luck be wearing a Colts' jersey in Week 1 of the 2012 season?

The Colts will not win a game this year. There best chance comes in Week 17 versus Jacksonville. Andrew Luck will be drafted by the Colts and I believe he will sit behind Peyton Manning, as Manning will not be traded in the offseason.

Week 11 - NFL Picks

2011-11-18T16:00:00.000-08:00

it is about time to start pimping someone else's picks. If you have not been logging on and reading some of the info at EatDrinkandSleepFootball.com you are doing your service an injustice. The owner of the website is on a ridiculous run with his NFL picks 25-6-2. These are the kind of numbers that you see all over the net on those pay for pick sites. If you are only reading my picks, do yourself a favor and click on this link and check out the picks section. For you fantasy footballers, last time I checked he was also ranked in the top 5 out of like 50 fantasy sports experts this season. Good stuff going on at EDS Football.

As for my picks, I can't seem to catch a break. I am having an up & down season going 1-2 last week dropping my record to 15-13-2 for the season. Don't worry, I am back and I got some great plays this week.

On to the picks......

New England -14.5
Kansas City has had issues on offense with Matt Cassel at QB. This week Tyler Palko will be starting for the Chiefs. This is a no brain game for me. This game smells like a blowout. I don't think a Palko led team could keep this close. I think New England will have this covered by half time and then will send a message to the rest of the AFC when they put their foot on the Chiefs throat in the second half and whoop their ass old school Patriots style. New England huge 41-13

Detroit -7
This is another blow out in the making game. Carolina looked awful against Tennessee at home, now they travel to Detroit where they just come off a humiliating loss to the Bears. I think the Lions get back on track here and beat the Panthers. I don't think the overlook factor (GB game Thanksgiving) comes into play here. Carolina has no defense and no match for Calvin Johnson. Lions win 31-20

Tennessee +6.5
Huge game for both teams as the playoffs are going to be tough to reach with a loss and going back to .500 at 5-5. Atlanta is just coming off a heart breaking OT loss to New Orleans and Tennessee is coming off a great overall game in their win at Carolina. Atlanta is a team without an identity and Tennessee has as inconsistent as they come. I think with so much on the line that this game comes down to the 4th qtr. I honestly think it is a toss up game. Atlanta 23-20

Good luck!

Week 11 - Power Rankings

2011-11-13T16:00:00.000-08:00

I will be participating in the Power Rankings over at EatDrinkandSleepFootball.com.
Below are the Power Rankings for Week 11. Everyone ranks teams differently. I believe rankings should be a combo of what teams have done thus far, and how I expect them to finish the season.

1. Green Bay 9-0
The best team in football hands down. They go as far as Rodgers takes them.

2. San Fransisco 8-1
Jim Harbaugh for Coach of the Year. 49ers are for real.

3. Pittsburgh 7-3
The best team in the AFC. Lets hope they don't face the Ravens in the playoffs.

4. New Orleans 7-3
Best weapons on offense in NFL. Best equipped team to beat the Packers.

5. Chicago 6-3
Don't sleep on the Bears, they are for real.

6. Baltimore 6-3
Losses vs Titans,Jags & Seahawks inexcusable for a Super Bowl contender.

7. NY Giants 6-3
Eli enjoying his best season as a pro.

8. New England 6-3
Suspect ground game/defense

9. Dallas 5-4
Cowboys will win the NFC East, and then Romo will blow it in the playoffs.

10. Detroit 6-3
Got smoked this week, but tons of talent.

11. NY Jets 5-4
Rex needs to shut up about others beating the Pats.

12. Houston 7-3
Had them at 5, drop them 7 spots with Schaub out for year.

13. Cincinnati 6-3
Andy Dalton/AJ Green - Bengals A+ draft

14. Atlanta 5-4
A team without an identity, and an idiotic coach.

15. Oakland 5-4
Run DMC/Bush combo could lead Raiders to division title.

16. San Diego 4-5
Norv must go, but still in the playoff hunt.

17. Tennessee 5-4
Chris Johnson finally has a good game.

18. Buffalo 5-4
We have seen the best of the Buffalo Bills.

19. Philly 3-6
Won't make playoffs, but will play spoilers

20. Tampa Bay 4-5
Bucs have been major disappointments

21. Kansas City 4-5
Injuries have killed the Chiefs

22. Denver 4-5
Tebow completes 2 passes in a win, good luck in future

23. Arizona 3-6
Kevin Kolb not the answer, back to the drawing board

24. Washington 3-6
Grossman/Beck = Skins drafting a QB next year

25. Seattle 3-6
Surprising Seahawks strike again

26. Minnesota 2-7
Adrian Peterson can win games for the Vikes himself

27. Miami 2-7
Better then people think

28. Jacksonville 3-6
Gabbert has not been the answer.

29. Carolina 2-7
Cam has been a success, the Panthers have not

30. St.Louis 2-7
Pains me to say as they were my preseason NFC West champ

31. Cleveland 3-6
No offense, no defense, no hope

32. Indianapolis 0-10
Suck for Luck is in full swing in Indy.

Question of the Week: Who will win the AFC West?

This division isn't as wide open as people think it is. Denver has no shot when Tim Tebow is only completing 2 passes a game. Kansas City has the hardest scheduling by far remaining. (New England,Pittsburgh,Chicago,NY Jets & Green Bay) It comes down to San Diego & Oakland, and they play each other Week 17 in Oakland. This will be for the division and I am sticking with my preseason Super Bowl pick in San Diego. Too much talent to disappoint.

Week 10 - NFL Picks

2011-11-09T18:14:00.000-08:00

Week 9 is in the books, and so is my favorite teams chances of making the playoffs. The Titans blew a 10pt half time lead against the Bengals led by a rookie QB. It was an ugly of a half of football as I have seen this year. As a fan, I have watched some heart breakers. I sat through the greatest comeback in NFL playoff history, Joe Montana and the Chiefs upsetting us in the playoffs, the Eddie George fumble game vs Baltimore, the Ed Reed bend and break CJ play in half game, and of course the Super Bowl where we fell 1 yard short. This game had that feeling as it was our season. When the Bengals took the lead in the 4th qtr I knew it was over. This team has no fight/heart, and I knew there would be no chance at a comeback. It's a pretty shitty feeling. I almost got to the point where I turned the game off. Luckily, my picks were better going 2-1 improving my record to 14-11-2 for the season.

This week I like

Pittsburgh -3
The Bengals are a great story so far this season, but they don't match up with the Steelers very well. Who would have thought losing Hines Ward to injury would have been such a great thing? The Steelers found another weapon in their passing game in Antonio Brown. Brown along with Mike Wallace give the Steelers two extremely fast and difficult guys to cover. When people think of elite quarterbacks in the league the name Ben Roethlisberger never gets brought up. I think Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense which is now their strong part of their team handle Cincy on the road this week. I love Andy Dalton & AJ Green, but the Steelers defense is a whole another animal compared to the teams they played this season. Steelers 26-17

Baltimore -7
The Ravens had a little hiccup a few weeks ago against the Jags, and an awful start versus the Cardinals the following week at home, but I think they are back and clearly are the favorites in the AFC right now. There has been much said about Joe Flacco this year mainly in some words or another.. In a quarterback driven league, Joe Flacco is not at that level to lead his team to a Super Bowl. I strongly disagree with this statement. Mark Sanchez has led the Jets to the AFC title game in back to back years and he is light years worse then Joe Flacco. I think Flacco is the perfect fit for Baltimore, and I think come playoff time he will prove those naysayers wrong. Defensively, Everyone has been waiting for the Ravens defense to slow down because they are getting old. This hasn't been the case at all. Some players just have "it", and don't lose "it" until the very end. There is no decline in play, just all of a sudden the "it" is gone. This is what happened to Randy Moss. Moss had the "it", and then bam it was gone and he was on the bench the following year. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed have this "it" and they will for a few more years. Seattle is overrated at 2-6, because frankly they are not that good. I think Baltimore wins big 27-6.

Tampa Bay +3.5
My third pick was difficult because I like a few other plays. I like San Fransisco at home, I like Indianapolis at home getting their first win of the year,and I like the Pats to beat the Jets, but I like the Bucs a little more. The Bucs are off to a disappointing 4-4 start this season, but their schedule outside of Indianapolis has been brutal. The Texans on the other hand appear to have the AFC South on cruise control as all the other teams have major issues. This is the beauty of the NFL, once you think you have a team figured out, you don't. This is one of the reasons why the NFL is the hardest sport to make money on as a gambler. The easiest sport is college basketball and I think most will agree with that. The only win Houston has this year versus a team that is over .500 now is Pittsburgh. They have lost to Oakland, New Orleans & Baltimore. Houston needs a couple more wins against good teams before I am ready to crown them as contenders. I think they stumble here Sunday in Tampa. Tampa on a last second FG 24-23.

Week 9 - NFL Picks

2011-11-04T19:07:00.000-07:00

Betting on Norv Turner and the Chargers was not a wise move. I should know better by now, but I thought the Chargers were going to come out and give Kansas City a run for their money this past weekend. I was very disappointed with that game and another 1-2 week dropping my record to 12-10-2 for the season. It's a long year, and I am still ahead for the year.

On to this weeks picks.

Houston -9.5
Cleveland is a mess on both sides of the ball. Peyton Hillis & Montario Hardesty will both be out this week, and Colt McCoy isn't exactly lighting it up. Even without Andre Johnson this week the Texans have too many weapons not to put up points against Cleveland. I like Houston big at home 31-13.

Denver +8
Tim Tebow shouldn't be a starting QB in the NFL, well neither should Carson Palmer after sitting out all season. Palmer looked rusty in Oakland's previous game, and I expect a hangover in this one. I think Oakland wins behind their rushing attack, but I think Denver keeps it close in a low scoring battle. Oakland 20-14

Tampa Bay +9
New Orleans will come out and correct some things that they did wrong last week versus St.Louis, but this line is way too high for a divison game. Tampa swept the series last year, and I think they keep this game close here. I think this is the MIke Williams breakout game you fantasy owners have been waiting for. Saints win in a shootout. 34-27

Week 8 - NFL Picks

2011-10-26T19:21:00.000-07:00

Remember the Titans...The greatest football movie of all time, unfortunately the NFL version of the Titans looked so bad this past Sunday they would have trouble beating that Denzel Washington coached team. My picks were 1-2 for the week dropping me to 11-8-2 for the season.

My other loss was the Chargers who collapsed in the 2nd half versus the Jets. Phillip Rivers might have played his worst half of football in his entire career. It was no shock to me that a Norv Turner team blew it. When will they realize that firing Marty Schottenheimer was the worst move this franchise has made.

The theme with my picks for this week is redemption Sunday. All three of my picks are teams that blew it big time last week.

Miami +11
Way too many points here. Don't let the Dolphins record fool you. They are not this bad. Miami still has a pretty solid defense, and playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. I think Daniel Thomas & Reggie Bush can have a pretty good game against the Giants. New York has had some issues themselves, mainly injuries but they are getting healthy at the right time. I think the Giants win this game, but I don't think they have the killer instinct to put anyone away, and ELi Manning still makes too mamy mistakes. This game will be closer then people think. Giants win 23-16

San Diego -3.5
It's tough to come back to San Diego after last weeks meltdown versus the Jets, but I guess I am a sucker. I look at Kansas City & San Diego and I see a legit Super Bowl contender on one side, and a team who should be picking in the Top 10 next year on the other side. Kansas City is on a 3 game winning streak after a terrible start, but they beat Oakland who started Kyle Boller and was without Darren McFadden most of the game, the worst team in the league in the Colts, and the Vikings who were awful with Donovan McBabb at QB. Playing in Arrowhead is tough, but Kansas City is just too banged up and San Diego is too good to let a team this bad beat them. San Diego wins easily here 31-13

Baltimore -12.5
I absolutely love the Ravens in this spot, after an absolute stinker Monday night versus the Jags. The Ravens are back for some home cooking. They are 3-0 this season ATS at home, and all 3 games they have won by a big margin. (28,17,15) All three of those games were against legit playoff contenders. (Pit,NYJ,Hou) Arizona is no where near a playoff contender, in fact they are a mess right now. Kevin Kolb has not worked out so far as expected by me. Their top running back "Fragile" Beanie Wells is out with another injury. There will be an Alfonso Smith sighting this week. Arizona is in the bottom 1/4 in pretty much every defensive stat. I expect Ray Rice to have an Arian Foster vs Tennessee big game this week and the Ravens will blow out the Cardinals 41-10

Best of luck.

Week 7 - NFL Picks

2011-10-17T18:40:00.000-07:00

I had another solid week with picks going 2-0-1, raising my 2011 season record to a nice 10-6-2. It was almost a perfect 3-0 week, but the Giants couldn't punch it in from the 1 yard line in the final minutes of the game Sunday. I will settle with the push, one thing for sure is I don't think I am going to sell on Buffalo much more this year. I fully expected them to struggle in New York and they played a tough hard fought game.

Some random thoughts before we get to this weeks winners...

- I mentioned this earlier this year, but it is getting national attention now after the bad play calling yesterday, but Dallas needs to find a way to get the ball into Dez Bryant's hands. Dez is a freak, and has amazing hands. He could be as good as Calvin Johnson, but he disappears from games in the 2nd half. Romo has two huge targets 6'4" in Dez & Miles Austin, but they don't utilize the size advantage like some teams do. (Detroit, Arizona & Miami to name a few) Dallas needs to let those guys make a play, not rely on just Romo doing it.

- It looks like Indianapolis is "ALL-IN" on the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. The Colts look awful. Peyton Manning deserves a MVP vote or at least consideration this year. When Tom Brady got hurt a few years back, the Patriots missed Brady, but they still played great as a team. Obviously Matt Cassel was better then Curtis Painter and Kerry Collins, but that doesn't excuse the rest of the team for sucking. Jim Caldwell does not deserve a mulligan on this season because of the loss of one player.

- Speaking of the AFC South, its the AFC South that has the worst record in the NFL this year, not the NFC West as many expected. The AFC South has a record of 7-16, the NFC West has a record of 9-13. The top teams Titans & Texans face each other this week.

- The Carson Palmer deal was ridiculous. The Raiders are a good team, but they can't win 3 games in a row vs the AFC teams that will be in the playoffs, so why bother with Palmer? Campbell has been playing well, and they could always use the draft picks on a QB. Palmer isn't the savior. He is a QB who hasn't played all year, and was already on the decline to begin with. His value IMO, was a 2nd rounder tops. I heard someone say that Al Davis left a note in his will to continue to make bone head moves. I wonder if this is true?

On to the picks.......

Pittsburgh -3.5
I love the road favorite here. Arizona has struggled this season especially new QB Kevin Kolb, who I have been on the record saying that he was not the answer in Arizona. The Steelers played a sloppy game last week against the dreadful Jaguars. I think Mike Tomlin gets this team back on track, and they play another great game like they did against the Titans. Offensively for the Steelers Mendenhall was back last week and he played great. I think the Steelers offense will be clicking on all cylinders this week and I think they score 30 on the road to win. The Arizona defense gives up 100 more yards, and 7 more points a game then the Steelers do. This line should be closer to 5.5 in my opinion, so I make the play now before it moves. I think it opened low because of the health concerns over Troy Polamalu, but Polamalu is listed as Probable so I think he is a safe bet for Sunday. Either way, the Steelers offensively are too good for the Cards. 30-21

Tennessee -3
Tennessee has been a tricky team to figure out this year. They lay an egg week 1 versus the Jags in a game everyone expected them to win. Week 2, they beat the Ravens in a game everyone thought they would lose. Week 3, they look like crap and barely squeak out a win versus the Broncos at home. They battle Cleveland on the road in Week 4, and the team looks great again. High expectations surround them Week 5 and Ben Roethlisberger's mobility question and the Titans get embarrassed. Do you see a pattern here? This is a huge division game for both teams. A win would give the Titans a nice 1.5 game lead in the division. Chris Johnson has yet to get on track this season. There have been some offensive line issues as I have talked about, but CJ owns the Texans. CJ averages 121 total yards a game versus the Texans over his career, and the Texans run defense is mediocre. The other Johnson, Andre is expected to be at least another week away from returning to action, so the AJ/Finnegan reunion will need to wait a few more weeks. The Titans D steps up big at home where they have only allowed 13.5 pts a game there so far this season, and Matt Schaub gets knocked around and the Titans win big 27-14.

San Diego -2
My third play was a tough one. I think this may be underdog redemption week after a bunch of big favorites won last week. It wouldn't shock me to see Minnesota, St.Louis & Jacksonville all cover and keep games close this weekend. For the official play I am going with the Chargers. The Chargers had an extra week to prepare for this game. Antonio Gates is practicing which is great news. The jury is still out on if he will play, but if he is practicing I think it is safe to say that he will be back barring any setbacks. The NY Jets are overrated. Their defense went from being fearsome to average. Revis is the only pro bowler on that team. Antonio Cromartie is awful. Offensively the Jets have no run game, and Mark Sanchez is as inconsistent as they come, plus they are on a short week playing this past Monday. The Jets were gifted a victory in Week 1 by Tony Romo, and the other two teams they beat Jags,Dolphins are 2 of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. The Chargers are a better team and they will show it this week with a 24-19 victory.

Good luck with your plays this week.

Week 6 - NFL Picks

2011-10-12T18:08:00.001-07:00

One important lesson came out of the Week 5 picks, and that is when you see a line that you like, jump on it, as they can move in a few days. I was lucky enough to get the Jets at +10 early in the week, and by kickoff the consensus line was +8. The Jets ended up losing by 9, but since the play was in early a win for me. This could go either way, so be careful. Right now, Green Bay is 14-1/2 pt favorites over St.Louis this week, If Aaron Rodgers gets hurt in practice, that line drops by 5 points and you are stuck with a bad line. The way I normally determine if I play an early line is every Tuesday morning, I will handicap my own lines. If my line is 3 points or more off, I will normally jump on the play early before the line moves.

Having multiple options of online books also helps. The difference between getting +3 or +3.5 is huge. That extra half point is worth about 3%. If gas station A has a gallon of gas at $3.50 a gallon, and across the street it is $3.52 a gallon, where are you going to get your gas? Same concept. The 2 cents a gallon helps your bottom line, just like that half point from another book. You need to win about 52.5% of your bets to be profitable over the season, so take any advantage you can get.

This past week I went 2-1 and nailed a big money line win with Oakland upsetting Houston on the road. My lone loss was Philly who pretty much was playing for their season on Sunday and blew it. My record for the year stands at 8-6-1.

On to the week 6 picks...

Dallas +7.5
New England has one thing going for them and that is Tom Brady. Without Tom Brady, see the Miami Dolphins. New England is no where near as talented as they were back when Matt Cassel took over for Brady a few years back. New England's defense is overrated, and they face a huge test this week versus Dallas. Dallas had an extra week to prepare for the game and they will have a healthy Miles Austin & Dez Bryant. The national spotlight will be on Tony Romo again, and I think he will pick apart the Patriots secondary. With a full compliment of weapons I think the Cowboys score early and often. Dallas defensively isn't great especially versus the pass so I expect Tom Brady to have a big game as well, but the main thing I keep looking at is New England's defense. This is going to be a huge test for them, and Dallas will score enough points to keep it close. It wouldn't shock me to see them win this outright either. New England in a close one 38-34

NY Giants -3
Two of my losses this year are courtesy of the Buffalo Bills, hopefully the third time is the charm and I get a win picking against them this week. Buffalo has beaten the "Dream Team" and the New England Patriots who many think are the 2nd best team in the NFL. Buffalo doesn't get respect from anyone, and they like it. This week they battle the Giants. The Giants looked pitiful last week versus the Seahawks at home. I think Tom Coughlin gets his team back on track this week, and the Bills finally come back to earth a little bit. Eli Manning is the anti Tony Romo being that he will play like shit for three quarters and play great at the end of the game. Offensively the Giants found some new weapons in Victor Cruz & TE Jake Ballard. Many, including myself questioned the odd decision in regards to how the Kevin Boss situation was handled, but Ballard has actually out performed what Boss did to this point last year. If the Giants put up another stinker then the Tom Coughlin ERA is pretty much over. I think the Giants come out and play a great game and win this one with a good defensive effort, and a few big plays from Eli Manning in the passing game. Giants 27-17

Green Bay -14.5
The Rams have scored 46 points total in 4 weeks, which averages out to 11.5 pts per game. The Packers on the other hand have scored 173 points in 5 games, which averages out to 34.6 pts per game. That's a 23 point difference. There is nobody in the league that is better then Aaron Rodgers right now. Rodgers despite having a mediocre running game continues to put up huge numbers. I could see this game getting ugly quickly. Green Bay has play makers on both sides of the ball, while St.Louis is an absolute mess offensively. Mike Sims-Walker was not the answer for the Rams offense. Sam Bradford is as talented as any young QB in the league, but without legit weapons to throw too, he is going to struggle. I wouldn't be worried about a back door cover in this one, as i think this game has 20-30 point blow out written all over it. Packers big 45-17

Best of luck to all

Week 5 - NFL Picks

2011-10-04T18:06:00.000-07:00

Another week in the books, and a disappointing 1-2 week to drop my record to 6-5-1 for the season. This past weeks picks really disappointed me as I thought I had three semi locks for the week.

I will start in Chicago with the dreaded back door cover by Carolina late with 4 seconds left. What an absolutely brutal way to lose a game. I give full credit to Cam Newton and the Panthers. I was expecting Newton to struggle playing in a hostile environment and he didn't. Chicago scored 34 points and that is with Jay Cutler only completing 9 passes all game.

My second unfortunate loss was with Atlanta. Here, we have another case of a team letting their foot off an opposing teams throat. Atlanta had a 24-7 halftime lead and almost blew the game. They went on to win 30-28. Atlanta should have put Seattle away easily. They let Tavaris Jackson who is arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL beat them, and look like a pro bowler in the process. Atlanta has some issues defensively, but I think once they get back at home, they will iron things out....That is after Green Bay leaves town.

On to the Week 5 Picks....

Philly -2
I like the Eagles in a bounce back game after their total collapse against San Fransisco. The Eagles have a lot of problems defensively, mainly at LB and that does pose a threat when you face a shifty back like Fred Jackson. I think Buffalo is still a tad bit overrated. If Philly loses to Buffalo this week, then they can pretty much kiss their season goodbye as I think it is going to take at least 10 wins to get a wildcard in the NFC. They are good enough on paper to have a 9-2 run, but they have 5 division games left, games versus New England, NY Jets & Chicago. This is an absolute must win. I have a feeling that no matter what happens in Buffalo the rest of the year, that Bills fans will be satisfied with the season just because of the New England win. Lets face it, they are not going to compete for a playoff spot this year. I think Vick has another big game here and the Eagles win on the road 31-24

Oakland +6
With the news that Andre Johnson is going to miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury I am jumping all over the Raiders with this line. Houston has played great this year and looks like they are legit AFC contenders, but I actually see them struggling in this one. Houston does not have a WR on their roster who can step in and be anywhere near as good as Andre Johnson. Jacoby Jones & Kevin Walter are both #3 WR's. Oakland has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season, so stopping Arian Foster will be key. Houston's o-line is not going to be able to push around Oakland's d-line like they did last week versus the Steelers. Houston's run defense isn't much better, and I think stopping the Raiders rushing attack will be more of a challenge. I actually think the Raiders are going to win this game outright. I'd consider adding a small moneyline play on it. Raiders 24-23

NY Jets +10
I see this game as high as 11 in some online sports books. New York looked awful offensively last week vs Baltimore. Their running game especially has been brutal. They should get some good news this week getting arguably the best center in the NFL back Nick Mangold. New England ranks last in the NFL in yards against and it's by a pretty wide margin. New England also ranks first in the NFL in total offense. You could make a case that their defense is just allowing the short stuff and taking the big play away because they are up so much, or you could actually look at the fact that this defense is just not that good. They have some great players like Vince Wilfork & Jerod Mayo, but the rest of their team is pretty young and inexperienced. Mayo the leader in the middle is out with a knee injury. I think the Jets are going to put up a good fight here, and like the Raiders game it would not shock me to see them go into New England and pull the upset. The Patriots defense does not look as bad when their offense is playing bad defenses and scoring 30+ points per game, but against a good defense their own poor defense is going to stick out like a sore thumb. I like the Pats to win but only by a FG 30-27.

Best of luck in Week 5!

What's wrong with Chris Johnson?

2011-10-03T18:22:00.000-07:00

Chris Johnson had his first 100 yard game of the season this past week versus the Browns when he racked up 101 yards on 23 carries. Johnson is only averaging 2.88 yards per carry this season, and many experts are saying he is back, I say not so fast!!

I have heard it every week. CJ2K's slow start is due to missing all of the preseason. Once he gets back into game shape, he will be the Chris Johnson of old and be one of the best RB's in the NFL again. This plays into maybe 10% of his slow start, but the main reason why CJ is struggling this season is the offensive line, mainly the interior offensive line.

The main piece missing is a true center and anchor on this offensive line. In CJ's record breaking 2009 season, the Titans had one of the best centers of this generation Kevin Mawae on board. The Titans current center Eugene Amano was at a more comfortable position at LG. LT Michael Roos who is one of the most underrated tackles in the league played better with Amano next to him then he has with current starter Leroy Harris. This week a couple of Johnson's big plays came after Harris left with an injury and backup Fernando Velasco came in to replace him. RG Jake Scott is decent, but he is no where near as good as he was when he was protecting Peyton Manning in Indy. The personnel on the offensive line is not going to change this year, even if Velasco replaces Harris it is going to be tough for CJ to find running room between the tackles.

The next thing going against CJ is the fact that teams are loading up to stop him especially with Kenny Britt being lost for the year. Defenses put 8 and sometimes 9 guys in the box to clog things up for the running game. The defensive gameplan is for the Titans QB to win the game, not CJ. Every coordinator in the league will live with that.

The third and final thing about CJ is he is not decisive. He is not hitting the hole like he did in 2008 & 2009. He is dancing around too much trying to find an opening. Part of this is his lines fault, but there are times when you see a little daylight and CJ runs sideline to sideline and not endzone to endzone. CJ's poor yards per carry is because of this reason. The difference between running full steam into a wall of defenders and gaining 2-3 yards just on momentum, and running vertically looking for an opening and losing a yard or just making it back to the line scrimmage is night & day. A 2nd & 6 is a lot different then a 2nd & 10 especially when it comes to play calling. OC Chris Palmer is not as likely to call CJ's number again, thus limiting chances with your best offensive weapon.

Fantasy wise if someone is buying this CJ hype after 1 good week against a terrible defense then I'd sell sell sell. For me until these issues above are fixed CJ2K will be lucky to be CJ1K this season.

Week 4 - NFL Picks

2011-09-28T18:43:00.000-07:00

Redemption week for me in my weekly picks, with a nice 2-1 record to bring me to 5-3-1 for the year. I was flip flopping all week on what my third pick was going to be. I was leaning on Denver all week due to the letdown factor for the Titans after a big win versus Baltimore the previous week, plus it was just one of those gut feelings as a fan knowing it was going to be a dog fight. I settled with New England because the statistical data versus Buffalo was too much to ignore.

I thought Buffalo would finally show their true colors in Week 3. Boy, was I wrong about Buffalo last week. I don't think they are ready to become serious playoff contenders yet though. Buffalo has scored the most points in the NFL this season with 113 through three weeks, but I don't think they can keep that pace up. After the Bengals this week, the Bills have games versus all 4 teams in the NFC East and the Jets, so they are in trouble as all of those teams have defenses that are better then what they have faced so far this year.

On to my Week 4 plays....

Chicago -6.5
Welcome to the NFL Cam Newton. This is Cam Newton's first real road test. I am not a Chicago fan at all. I predicted them to miss the playoffs this year and finish 3rd in their division, but this is the Carolina Panthers. I realize Cam played great in Week 1, and a monster statistical game in Week 2 vs the Packers, but he also threw 3 picks in that game. Soldier Field is not an easy place to play, and I think Cam Newton and the Panthers offense will struggle here in this spot. Chicago offensively has the same problems as they have had in the past and that is keeping Jay Cutler upright. Good news this week facing a Carolina defense who only has 5 sacks through three games this season. With Green Bay & Detroit potentially being 4-0 after this week this is a game the Bears must win to have any kind of shot at contending for the division. I think the Bears get it done 30-13

Indianapolis +10
Ten points in the NFL is a lot of points. As bad as the Colts have played so far this year they actually had a pretty respectable showing versus a legit playoff contender last Sunday night against the Steelers. There is no replacing Peyton Manning I get that, but this team still has talent. I watched the Atlanta game last week and the Bucs had no business winning that game. Atlanta had numerous opportunities but they shot themselves in the foot with bad penalties & stupid mistakes like a few dropped passes by Roddy White & Julio Jones. Tampa Bay was a great story last year, and many thought they were ready to take it to the next step and make the playoffs, but I am not one of those believers. I think Tampa Bay will win this game, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see the Colts win outright. I think this game will be closer then some people think. Tampa 21-17

Atlanta -4.5
When teams saw @ Seattle on their schedule they knew they were going to be in for a dog fight, unfortunately that was in the past. Seattle still has one of the best "12th man" advantage in the NFL, but this team is far from being fearsome. As I noted above Atlanta blew it last week versus Tampa Bay, and I think this spread is a tad bit lower then it should be. After a loss, Atlanta is 17-4 ATS the spread the following week. I think Atlanta rebounds again here. Seattle has only scored 30 points through three weeks this season. Atlanta is 0-2 on the road this year, but this is the Tavaris Jackson led Seahawks. Atlanta is too talented for a let down here especially in the NFC South. Atlanta has Green Bay next week, so this game is a must win. I think Matt Ryan & Roddy White have a big day and Falcons roll 27-12

Best of luck this week.

From Fantasy Hero to Fantasy Zero

2011-09-26T18:30:00.000-07:00

Two years ago, I pulled off one of the rarest things when I pulled off a fantasy championship trifecta. There was no better feeling knowing that each week my team was going to go out and put a thumping on someone. Two of those leagues were dynasty leagues which are by far the best kind of fantasy football leagues. This year, through the first 3 weeks I am 0-6 in my two leagues, and that feeling is the exact opposite now.

Dynasty League
This dynasty team was a bit different from my original dynasty league team. I planned on drafting for now in the initial draft instead of going for youth and the future. I drafted guys like Ladanian Tomlinson & Randy Moss towards the end of their productive careers. This plan was great as I was able to win a championship and finish in 2nd place another year, so I definitely got my moneys worth. Without LT & Moss there is no way I cash in either season. Today, LT & Moss both sit on my bench.

The tide changes real quickly in a dynasty league, and unlike a yearly league there may be years when you know going in you have no chance to win. I kind of had that feeling this year when I was looking at starting Brian Robiske & Jordan Shipley in Week 1, so I had to make some moves. My first move was to trade up for the #1 pick in the draft. I had to sacrifice my #1 round pick in 2012 to get the deal done, but I was able to wheel and deal and the #1 pick was basically traded for Vincent Jackson. Going into the season with 2 solid WR's and only having to play one poor one was great for me, and it gave me a little hope for this season. That hope quickly died when I lost one of my good WR's Marques Colston for 4-6 weeks.

I was back to that same sinking feeling for week 2 with only 1 quality WR in my lineup. I didn't make any trades for Week 2 and it cost me, but I was able to make my second move of the year getting Cowboys WR Dez Bryant along with Chad Henne for Matthew Stafford & Cedric Benson. Benson to me was a throw away as he didn't fit in my future plans, but losing Stafford did hurt, but I think a healthy 100% Dez will be a top #1 WR for years to come.

My current starting roster when healthy

QB - Matt Schaub
RB - Chris Johnson, Daniel Thomas
WR - Vincent Jackson, Dez Bryant, Marques Colston
TE - Kellen Winslow

The future looks brighter for me then it did at the beginning of the year for sure, but 0-3 is 0-3.

Seasonal League
I honestly thought I had one of the better teams after the draft. I felt great. I landed Michael Vick later then I expected him to be there. The guy averaged almost 25 pts per game last year. The second closest guy was Aaron Rodgers at 20. Obviously Vick has been a huge disappointment thus far.

My 2nd & 3rd round picks Hakeem Nicks & Mike Williams also have been huge busts so far for me. Nicks has been dinged up a bit, and Mike Williams was a player I expected to jump to that next level with Josh Freeman at QB. Williams has the talent, but Tampa's offense hasn't done anything this season, and when it has Williams wasn't part of it.

My 4th round pick Antonio Gates was a health risk, and I knew this coming in but I thought it was great value. Who would have thought Rob Gronkowski would be the man this year. Crazy.

My plan was to rely on rookie RB's who I really liked Daniel THomas & Ryan Williams. Williams of course landed on the IR after we had drafted which was way too early to begin with. It had worked in the past, and If you looked at average numbers between my QB,WR,WR,TE versus anyone in the league projected preseason, I had a huge advantage. I just needed my RB's to stay healthy and catch some breaks which didn't happen.

Current roster

QB - Michael Vick
RB - Daniel Thomas, Dexter McCluster, Jonathan Stewart
WR - Hakeem Nicks, Mike Williams
TE - Antonio Gates

My team has battled injuries more then probably any other team, but I think this team has a chance to make a serious push at the #6 seed even at 0-3. All it takes is a few good weeks and anything can happen in the playoffs.

Week 3 - NFL Picks

2011-09-21T18:42:00.000-07:00

The NFL, you have to love it. I was served with some humble pie this past weekend with a 0-2-1 week. My no play advice was a solid 2-1 though, so hopefully you passed on those games.

Kansas City was absolutely embarrassed by Detroit last week. Losing one of the best running backs in the game in Jamaal Charles definitely didn't help me out any. It seemed like as soon as Charles got hurt the wind was let out of KC's sail. At this pace, Kansas City is going to have 20 players on the IR by the end of the year, and will be picking in the top 5.

The Colts didn't show up either. Kerry Collins should officially retire. If Jim Caldwell doesn't seriously consider starting Curtis Painter soon, they will be in even more trouble. I am not sure what is taking so long in trying to sign David Garrard. If they want any chance in turning around this season they will have to make a move at QB.

The big kick in the nuts this weekend was my final play which was one of my biggest plays in a while. I loved Dallas at -3. It wasn't looking good early, but when the game went into OT and Jesse Holley caught that long pass from Tony Romo and he was running towards the endzone all of us on the Cowboys Sunday were thinking winner. Instead Holley celebrates a tad bit early and gets tackled from behind on the 1. Terrible Bad beat here. I do feel that these beats do equal out in the end though.

This week there a couple of games I really like starting with....

New Orleans -4
The typical way most people think lines work in the NFL is you get 3 points for home field advantage. Do you think this line should be -1 on a neutral field? I certainly do not. There are a couple of trends I like here. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record, and Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Houston is not as good as people think they are. They beat a mediocre Indy team with the leagues worst starting QB Kerry Collins. The Miami win on the road was nice, but Miami I still expect to finish in the basement. New Orleans on the other hand had some problems versus Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in week 1, but who hasn't? Last week they dominated a Bears team who previously just beat an Atlanta team who many thought was the best team in the NFC. This is a big test for Houston, and I think they are not ready to step up and play with the big boys especially on the road. I think New Orleans runs the ball all over them like Daniel Thomas did last week, and Brees has a big game as well.
Saints win easily 34-17

Baltimore -4
I really like the Ravens in this spot. Baltimore just came off a horrendous beating to the Tennessee Titans who looked like one of the worst teams in the league after a week 1 loss at Jacksonville. Baltimore is obviously better then what they showed last week. St.Louis on the other hand has struggled against two good teams NY Giants & Philly. St.Louis was a lot of peoples pick for 1st in the NFC West, but I think they are still too banged up to seriously contend with a Super Bowl caliber team here. One stat that pops out in this matchup is that the Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they rushed for fewer then 90 yards. The Ravens at time get away from their bread & butter and that is running the ball with Ray Rice. I expect Rice to get back on track against this defense which ranks last in the NFL in rushing yards against. I think Baltimore's defense comes up big as well and the Ravens win this here 27-13.

New England -8.5
There has been no bigger surprise in the NFL this year then the Buffalo Bills starting 2-0. Reality will set back in this week when they face the Patriots. Buffalo has played New England tough in recent matchups, but I think the Patriots make a statement here this week that they are the tops in the AFC, not the Jets. Tom Brady is on set to destroy Dan Marino's all time passing record for yards in a season. In fact this year in the NFL there has been more passing yards in the first two weeks then ever before. Buffalo did show a lot of heart in their comeback last week versus Oakland, but this isn't Oakland in week 3. New England's defense made big play after big play against Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense last week, and I expect them to have a big game here too. New England has covered their last 7 games in Buffalo, and I see no reason why 8 won't happen Sunday. New England wins easily and Brady has another huge day 38-20

Season Record 3-2-1

Best of luck to all this week.

Week 2 - NFL Picks

2011-09-14T19:43:00.000-07:00

Week 1 is officially in the books, and so is a perfect 3-0 record by yours truly. The experts at EatDrinkandSleepFootball were 5-1-3. Hop on board with our picks and enjoy the ride all season long.

There is a bunch of intriguing matchups in Week 2. The beauty of the NFL is, once you think you have a team figured out and make a play on them, you will be left scratching your head. I see a couple of possible head scratchers to be aware of in Week 2. I will start with those before my official picks.

Untouchable Plays

3 road teams that looked like serious championship contenders

Houston at Miami
Houston dominated Indy in week 1. Miami couldn't stop New England at all. Houston is a 3 pt road underdog. Don't jump on the Houston bandwagon yet. Matt Schaub is good, but he is no Tom Brady. I think Miami will win outright.

Philly at Atlanta
Atlanta got smoked by Chicago in week 1. Philly looked great on the road versus a Rams team that many thought would win the NFC West this year, and have a chance at beating the Eagles. Atlanta should be favored here as they are better then they looked at Chicago. Don't be fooled by the Philly hype.

Baltimore at Tennessee
Baltimore is giving 6 on the road here. I like Baltimore to win this game, but the Titans will have two key defensive players back this week in DT Jason Jones and DE Derrick Morgan. Also Chris Johnson is expected to get his usual 20+ touches. Look out on this one.

On to the official plays...

Dallas -3
This line is an absolute joke. Am I missing something here? San Fransisco beat the worst team in the NFL IMO, and it took two special teams TD's to put them away. Dallas got a bunch of bad breaks, a blocked punt, and a fumble by Romo inside the 5 yard line. Dallas should have won that game by 2 TD's. If they had won, this line is easily 7, and I honestly think it could be 10. This is an early 5 star must play game for me. You totals players, I like the over here in this contest as well as it is 5-0 in the past 5 meetings between these two teams. Dallas wins and early must win game to avoid digging out of a 0-2 hole 31-20.

Kansas City +9
This is the current line at a few online books. It is always good to have accounts on a couple of different sites as lines vary between books based on their action. This line is the shocker of the week. Are we ready to crown the Detroit Lions legit playoff contenders after one week? The Packers are ten point favorites at home versus Carolina. Carolina might I add is worse then Kansas City. Don't buy the Cam Newton hype after playing the Cardinals who are awful against the pass. This line is an over exaggeration after one solid performance by the Lions. The Chiefs lost their best defensive player Eric Berry for the year, but offensively Matt Cassel has had another week to rest his sore ribs, and any team with Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster & Steve Breaston will score some points. Last week was a fluke against Buffalo. I expect Kansas City to come out and put up a fight in this one, and it wouldn't shock me to see them upset the Lions here. I like the over as well here. Lions win 27-20

Indianapolis +2.5
Just how valuable is Peyton Manning? I am not a huge fan of Kerry Collins but when you have the supporting cast around you like he does you can turn a below average quarterback into a decent quarterback. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as home underdogs, and I expect this trend to continue this week. I think the play here is to take the Colts moneyline to the bank. Peyton Hillis and the Browns offense should get back on track this week, but I think with the Colts weapons on offense along with another week of prep with Kerry Collins under center gives the Colts the edge here. Colts win 24-23

Best of luck to all who are tailing me this week.

2011- NFL Playoff Predictions

2011-09-12T17:52:00.000-07:00

I wish I could change a couple of these after watching some games week 1, but I'm sticking to the initial predictions.

Afc Seeds
1. New England 13-3
2. Baltimore 12-4
3. San Diego 11-5
4. Houston 10-6
5. Pittsburgh 10-6
6. Tennessee 9-7

NFC Seeds
1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Philly 11-5
3. New Orleans 11-5
4. St.Louis 9-7
5. Dallas 10-6
6. Atlanta 10-6

Wild Card Weekend

(3) San Diego over (6) Tennessee - These two teams have met in the playoffs before and the Chargers have won those games. I don't expect anything different here. Cinderella story for Mike Munchak and the Titans is over.

(5) Pittsburgh over (4) Houston - The Gary Kubiak era is officially over. A playoff berth is not enough. Steelers too experienced in this spot.

(6) Atlanta over (3) New Orleans - The Falcons balanced attack too much for the Saints and the Falcons upset them on the road.

(5) Dallas over (4) St.Louis - Road Favorite Dallas wins in a close battle.

Divisional Round

(1) New England over (5) Pittsburgh - Tom Brady and the Pats own the Steelers and will win this one.

(3) San Diego over (2) Baltimore - Go Chargers Go! I like them to upset the Ravens.
San Diego has too many weapons.

(1) Green Bay over (6) Atlanta - Rodgers and co. too much offense for the Falcons. Green Bay wins by 3 TD.

(5) Dallas over (2) Philly - I really like the Cowboys to disrupt Vick, plus Dallas is one team that can scoring with Philly.

Conference Finals

(3) San Diego over (1) New England - Phillip Rivers has a huge day and leads his team to the Super Bowl

(1) Green Bay over (5) Dallas - In a shootout, I think Green Bay wins a close battle when Tony Romo chokes again.

Super Bowl

Green Bay over San Diego - I think Green Bay is too good on both sides of the ball. It might be lame to call for a back to back champ, but I think the Packers are that good.

NFL Awards

Coach of the Year - Mike McCarthy - Packers
MVP - Phillip Rivers - Chargers
OROY - Cam Newton - Panthers
DROY - Von Miller - Broncos

2011- NFC Predictions

2011-09-12T17:37:00.000-07:00

I released my AFC last weeks, due to Hurricane Irene I was without power for about a week so couldn't get the NFC selections up that I wanted to.

NFC East

1. Philly 11-5 - Philly goes as far as Michael Vick takes them. One thing that is nice is having Vince Young at backup. They can run the same playbook with Young as they do Vick. Eagles too talented on offense and have just enough D.

2. Dallas 10-6 - I like Dallas to make the playoffs this year. I know they had a hiccup last night versus the Jets, but I still like them to make the playoffs

3. NY Giants 7-9 - Too many injuries in the preseason

4. Washington 7-9 - Not a huge fan of the offense

NFC North

1. Green Bay 13-3 - The class of the NFC North. 500+ pts this year for the Pack

2. Detroit 9-7 - I am a Stafford believer

3. Chicago 8-8 - After Week 1's dismantling of the Falcons I could be way off

4. Minnesota 4-12 - Offensive & Defensive issues = Top 5 pick in 2012

NFC South

1. New Orleans 11-5 - I think Saints rebound and win division

2. Atlanta 10-6 - Matt Ryan poised for a big season

3. Tampa Bay 8-8 - Not there yet, although huge fan of Freeman & Mike Williams

4. Carolina 4-12 - Might win more then 4 games with Cam "ROY" Newton at QB

NFC West

1. St.Louis 9-7 - Banged up now, but I think healthy Bradford will lead to title

2. San Fransisco 6-10 - Defensively I like better then bottom teams in division

3. Arizona 5-11 - Not sold on Kolb or Cards D

4. Seattle 4-12 - Worst team in the NFC

Week 1 - NFL Picks

2011-09-08T18:59:00.000-07:00

Weekly I will be making picks for EatDrinkandSleepFootball.Com I am ready for another winning season, so hop on board.

Minnesota (+9)
I think the Chargers are by far a superior team, but the Chargers are notoriously slow starters under Norv Turner. San Diego had the #1 defense in the NFL last year in yards against, but still gave up over 20 pts a game. I know a lot of people think Donovan McNabb is done because of his season last year in Washington. I am not one of those guys. I think D-Mac has a couple of solid years left in the tank. McNabb has better weapons in Minnesota then he did in Washington by a mile. San Diego has been the sexy pick for years in the AFC and this year is no different. I think this line is a little off. Antonio Gates despite what reports say is not 100% healthy. The Chargers also need to find out what they have at RB in Ryan Mathews. The Vikings don't have this issue with arguably the best back in the NFL. Chargers win but this game will be closer then expected. San Diego 27 Minnesota 20

New England -7
There is a big misconception that Miami has New England's number. Miami has only beaten New England 3 times in their past 10 tries, and I don't count one of those games as Tom Brady was out for one of them. The fact is that the Patriots own the Dolphins. Miami is a dreadful 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 September games. I expect the Patriots offense to be clicking on all cylinders and Miami will be wishing by half time that they pulled the trigger and traded for Kyle Orton. The Patriots win big on the road 34-17.

Dallas +5
The Jets are playing a Sunday nighter on national televison on the 10 year anniversary of 9/11. Dallas is as banged up as they come in their secondary and on their offensive line which doesn't exactly help against Rex's attacking defense. That being said, I really like the Cowboys for some reason. I am not a big Mark Sanchez fan, and also am not a big Jets fan. I think the Jets will actually miss the playoffs this year mainly due to QB play. Dallas has too many weapons offensively even despite a banged up offensive line to not keep this one close. I think the Jets take it on a last second FG. Jets 17-16

2011 - AFC West Predictions

2011-09-07T17:56:00.000-07:00

San Diego 11-5
I think San Diego runs away with this division and for me this is the easiest division winner pick of them all. This team lives and dies with its leader Phillip Rivers. Rivers put up ridiculous numbers last year and that was without Vincent Jackson for half the season, and Antonio Gates battling injuries all year. I think Rivers with a full cast of weapons around him can challenge the 5,000 yard mark and Dan Marino's record.

Defensively the Chargers are very underrated. I love a lot of the moves they made in the offseason. Bob Sanders is as injury prone as they come, but when Sanders is healthy he is at that elite level with the likes of Troy Polamalu & Ed Reed. People forget just how good Bob Sanders was in Indy because he has been hurt so much. The Chargers were also able to resign Eric Weddle which was huge, it did come with a huge price tag but I think it was a good move in the long run. Takeo Spikes adds another veteran in the LB corp to go along with stud Shaun Phillips. If they are weak its on the D-line, but their back 8 more the make up for it.

Fantasy Spin: Until we see how the Tolbert/Mathews situation plays out I can't draft either of them. I also think Vincent Jackson & Antonio Gates are going to have huge years. Gates is slipping in some drafts due to injury concerns.

Oakland 8-8
Oakland is a team on the rise even with a shaky QB situation with Jason Campbell. Terrell Pryor isn't the answer either as that may have been one of the worst wastes of a draft pick I have seen in a while. They could have signed him as an undrafted free agent as I don't think anyone would have drafted him. This is one of the reasons why the Raiders will never get to that next level. Oakland did lose Nnamdi in the offseason but they still have a very good no name kind of defense outside of Richard Seymour. I love their linebacking corp which may be one of the most underrated in the league.

The recipe to success will be ball control with their very good ground game with Darren McFadden & Michael Bush. Jason Campbell will not be able to win a game on his shoulders, but if he limits his mistakes and makes a few big plays down the field to Jacoby Ford the Raiders could be a sneaky playoff caliber team in 2011.

Kansas City 7-9
The Rodney Dangerfield team of the NFL is Kansas City. No Respect! I think the Chiefs were over achievers last year. Their ground game is great, and Matt Cassel & Dwayne Bowe were great last year. I just don't think there is enough weapons in the passing game especially since they just lost arguably their 2nd best weapon in the passing game Tony Moeaki for the season. I expect defenses to be more aware of Jamaal Charles and I expect a drop off in his numbers.

Kansas City has a very good young defense. Safety Eric Berry is going to be talked about in 10 years how we are talking about guys like Ed Reed is now. A first place schedule hurts Kansas City this year as they have games vs Indy & Pittsburgh which I think will cost them a chance at a repeat birth in the playoffs.

Fantasy Spin: Dwayne Bowe may have even more redzone targets with Tony Moeaki out for the season. I could see a repeat performance from Bowe. Keep an eye out for Jonathan Baldwin as well.

Denver 5-11
The best news in Denver this offseason was the non news of not trading Kyle Orton. Orton gives this team the best chance to win. Denver will need to come out to a fast start in their first 3 games because in weeks 4 & 5 they face Green Bay & San Diego two games they will probably lose. Luckily Denver starts off with Oakland, Cincinnati and Tennessee. They will need to go in to their bye week at least 2-3 for the Kyle Orton experience to continue. If they are 1-4 or worse I expect Tim Tebow to get the nod in Miami. That being said, I think it will be a long year for the Broncos.

Denver has questions all over the offensive side of the ball. Can Knowshon Moreno be a featured back in this league? Can Brandon Lloyd have another amazing year?

Defensively the Broncos get Elvis Dumervil back from injury, and they drafted Von Miller who is going to wreck havoc all year long. This will help a pass rush that only recorded 23 sacks a league low. The Broncos weren't very good stopping the pass either and 3/4 of their starting secondary are Age 33 or older. It is not looking good for Denver.

Fantasy Spin: I like Eric Decker as a sleeper to eventually become a good #2 WR behind Brandon Lloyd. Decker is going undrafted in most leagues.

2011 - AFC South Predictions

2011-09-06T18:44:00.000-07:00

This division I think is one of the most wide open divisions in the NFL. A few years ago I labeled it the best division in football, and record wise it was. Not so much anymore. This division is filled with question marks.

Houston 10-6
The time is now for the Houston Texans. With the news of a prolonged injury for Peyton Manning the Texans step in as front runners by many in the AFC South. There is reasons to love the Texans this year. The biggest offseason move in the division was Houston hiring DC Wade Phillips. Phillips might be an awful head coach, but as a defensive coordinator he is the real deal. They also didn't put all their chips in the middle with the Nnamdi sweepstakes and come up empty like the Jets either. They got the 2nd best player available in Johnathan Joseph.

Offensively there is a scare in regards to the hamstring of Arian Foster. The best thing for the Texans to do would be resting him and making sure he is 100%, but since they play the Colts week 1, and it seems really silly to say it a must win game he will go. Houston does have depth at RB so losing Foster would hurt but it wouldn't be devastating like CJ or MJD going down. I think this team is missing one piece to seriously contend in the AFC and that is a weapon opposite of Andre Johnson. Jacoby Jones & Kevin Walter just don't cut it as #2 Wr's. I think adding someone like Terrell Owens when he gets healthy would be huge for this team.

Fantasy Spin: With Arian Foster's hamstring issues, it would be wise to invest in some Houston RB's. Look out for second year RB Ben Tate. Tate could be a draft day steal.

Tennessee 9-7
Disclaimer - I am a Titans fan. I just wanted to get that out there. At one point last year the Titans were 5-2 and playing great football, and then all hell broke loose. This was the most difficult year in being a Titans fan I have ever had to endure. There was clear division in the locker room with the whole Vince Young situation. The players didn't want to come out and say they sided with VY, but you know some did.

Jeff Fisher is one of the greatest coaches in NFL history not to win a Super Bowl, but he is the main reason why the Titans failed last year. Fisher was too loyal to players & coaches who had no business being there. Fisher let his ego run the team into the ground.

This year there is new blood in Nashville. Mike Munchak takes over as head coach. Munchak as well as Bruce Matthews will get the best out of the Titans offensive line and I expect a huge year from Chris Johnson and the Titans rushing attack this year. Matt Hasselbeck starts at QB, but rookie Jake Locker has looked great this pre-season and is probably the most ready of any of the rookie QB's this year. If Kenny Britt can keep his hamstrings healthy and stop being a knucklehead off the field, and TE Jared Cook can live up to what coaches around the league are saying about him then the Titans offensively could be pretty good this year.

The main problem with the Titans is on the defensive side of the ball. Their biggest loss was losing one of the most underrated coaches in the NFL and that was Defensive Line coach Jim Washburn. Washburn made millionaires out of tons of players in his system. Antwan Odom, Travis Laboy, Albert Haynesworth & now Jason Babin who left with Washburn to Philly. The Titans have questions all over the place on defense. Their D-line is banged up already with their 2010 1st round pick Derrick Morgan still struggling with injuries. Their linebackers were arguably the worst in the NFL last year. They lost their best linebacker Stephen Tulloch to the Lions. Tulloch's knock was he wasn't great in coverage, but he was great against the run. Tennessee fixed this by getting the exact opposite in Barrett Ruud from Tampa. Great in coverage, but soft against the run. Akeem Ayers LB & Jurell Casey DT both drafted this year should help this team. Tennessee has issues in the secondary as well especially at safety where Chris Hope is well past his prime. The Titans are looking to catch lightning in a bottle again with another late round cornerback with Chris Hawkins who has surprised people this pre-season.

This team has a lot of question marks on the defensive side of the ball, but a last place schedule will be their friend this year and a playoff chance is not crazy.

Fantasy Spin: Jared Cook as mentioned above is a deep sleeper at TE. You're not gonna draft him in the Top 12 now, but by years end it wouldn't shock me to see him in the Top 10.

Indianapolis Colts 8-8
I had the Colts at 9-7 before I heard the news about Peyton Manning. I'm gonna go with 8-8 for now as I think the Colts are still good enough to win some games this year. Obviously Kerry Collins isn't Peyton Manning, but at this point of his career Kerry Collins is just as good as Curtis Painter. The move doesn't make sense to me. Kerry Collins was awful last year in Tennessee.

The Colts may have a ton of weapons for Collins to throw to, but he can't read defenses and be spot on with passes like Peyton can. The Colts are going to have to win early with defense and a rushing attack. Delone Carter could be the starting back by the end of the year. I am not a big fan of Joseph "Tappy" Addai.

Indy's schedule isn't cake either early. Houston Week 1, Pittsburgh Week 3, Tampa Bay Week 4, and Cleveland fights and could be a problem in Week 2. Indy's schedule isn't cake either when Peyton will be back healthy, they have a back to back road trip at New England and Baltimore.

Fantasy Spin: You obviously have to drop all Colts players down a few notches. One guy I am staying clear of is Dallas Clark. Clark has no business being selected in the top 3 this year.

Jacksonville 5-11
Well the big news today was that the Jags cut ties with QB David Garrard. I know this move saves them 9 million dollars this year, and the Jags honestly didn't have a chance to win it all this year anyways, but throwing in the towel before the season starts is kind of crazy. Luke McCown does not give the Jags the best chance to win. David Garrard does. I'm sick of hearing these BS statements from teams and coaches. They should just come out and say the truth. It was a business decision to cut Garrard. We like Gabbert for the future and don't want to pay for Garrard this year when we know we won't make the playoffs.

The QB situation in Jacksonville isn't the only problem on this offense. MJD is recovering from injury, and his backup Rashad Jennings was lost for the year. Jacksonville also lost arguably their top WR in Mike Sims-Walker and didn't replace him at all.

One thing that has always been true about Jags teams especially under Jack Del Rio is that they will play hard. The Jags aren't going to get smoked by anyone, and if you take them lightly they will knock you in the mouth and beat you.

Fantasy Spin: MJD for me is not a top back anymore. He has dropped to that 2nd tier of backs. If you have a mid round pick, go Andre Johnson, Vick/Rodgers before reaching on MJD.

2011 - AFC North Predictions

2011-09-06T17:44:00.000-07:00

Baltimore 12-4
I think the Ravens will over take the Steelers this year for first place. Baltimore has won games in years past with their stout defense. They just needed a QB who could manage the game like Trent Dilfer did win they won the Super Bowl. Those Ravens teams are history as Baltimore's offense is the reason why they will win the division this year.

Joe Flacco is ready to get into that next tier of Quarterbacks this year, and adding a deep threat into the mix in Lee Evans was absolute genius this offseason. If Torrey Smith can get with it and show the talent he had in college at this level then Baltimore's offense could be one of the best in the conference.

Fantasy Spin: When all things are done at the end of the year I expect Ray Rice to be the #1 back in fantasy football.

Pittsburgh 10-6
Pittsburgh takes a notch back this year and finishes in second. I don't think their offensive weapons are as good as Baltimore's even when you consider Mike Wallace a top 10 WR in the league. Mendenhall is a good RB, but I don't think he is or ever will be in that elite status like Ray Rice will be this year.

I just have a bad feeling about this team this year. I think those James Harrison comments will come up again at some point during this season and there will be chaos in the Steelers locker room. This team is getting a little long in the tooth as well. Troy Polamalu needs to stay healthy for the Steelers to have success and he is getting to that age where he could start to break down a little bit. 19 games played over the past 2 seasons. They need him to stay on the field.

Fantasy Spin: Ben Roethlisberger is currently ranked in the top 10 going into the year. (currently 8 on ESPN.com) I feel that Big Ben will be out of the top 12 at the end of the season.

Cleveland 7-9
Cleveland is clearly in a rebuilding mode, but they will sneak up and beat some teams this year. They have a great rushing attack with Peyton Hillis, and I think a healthy Montario Hardesty will be very valuable for the Browns this year. Joe Thomas anchors a Cleveland o-line and the Browns were smart in locking him up long term to protect Colt McCoy. McCoy doesn't have the weapons yet in the passing game but the team and I am high on rookie WR Greg Little. Mohammed Massoquoi and Brian Robiske will be decent #2 options.

The defensive line is the Browns main weakness and that is where they will struggle in most games. They get little to no pressure on the QB. (6th least amount of sacks in NFL) They drafted Phil Taylor at DT to give them a little beef up front, but this team defensively isn't good enough to challenge for the division with two elite teams.

Fantasy Spin: Madden Cover Jinx! Beware Peyton Hillis owners. This is one jinx that always seems to be spot on.

Cincinnati 3-13
With the first pick in 2012 NFL Draft....This team is a mess. Kind of crazy to think that the Bengals actually won the division two years ago. A miracle won't happen again for this team. What will be nice for the Bengals this year is that they can see if rookie QB Andy Dalton is the real deal unlike some of these other teams who will be picking in the Top 5 next year.

The Bengals did get the best player in the draft in AJ Green. He is going to be a stud. I think he could be close to Calvin Johnson type of talent. If the Bengals can find a QB, Green will be an elite receiver for years to come.

Fantasy Spin: Cedric Benson is being under looked in fantasy drafts. Maybe, partly due to his legal troubles. Benson is one of the few backs in the NFL that carries the majority of the load. He won't get you flashy numbers, but consistent scoring each week.

2011 - AFC East Predictions

2011-08-23T18:29:00.000-07:00

It's time for my yearly predictions. I am sticking with the NFL trend of 5 new playoff teams. 4 of the 5 were easy choices for me.

The AFC East isn't as tricky as you think this year.

New England 13-3
New England is my odds on favorite to have the best record in the NFL this year, and to win another division title. Tom Brady is one of the leagues best players, if not the best. New England added Chad Ochocinco to give them finally an elite receiver they have lacked since Randy Moss started his decline. I don't believe Ocho Cinco is washed up at all. Brady spreads the ball around better then anyone in the league. Imagine what this New England offense would do with a great RB? New England will roll with a RBBC again this year led by the "Law Firm".

New England added ALbert Haynesworth to beef up the front line which already has one of the best defensive players in the league in DT Vincent Wilfork. The Patriots one weakness is probably at outside linebacker where they have Rob Ninkovich & Jermaine Cunningham. I think New England will utilize a 4-3 more this year then in years past to cover for this weakness.

Fantasy Spin: As much as I like Chad Ochocinco in New England with Brady, I am passing on him as I think he is being over drafted with the expectations that he is going to have a monster Moss like year. Brady has too many weapons especially in the redzone where he likes to hit his TE.

NY Jets 9-7
I think the Jets blew it this year in the offseason. Nnamdi Asomugha was the piece I believed that would have made this defense elite. Antonio Cromartie is one of the most overrated players in the league, and the Jets had to over pay to retain his servcies as he was the best of what was left. Sure Plaxico Burress is a nice signing, and re-signing Santonio Holmes was huge in the development of Mark Sanchez, but there is still something off for me when it comes to this team.

The Jets were only 2-4 last year in the regular season versus playoff teams. They struggled against teams they should have beat easily in Detroit & Cleveland. Last season they played the NFC North, this year they play the best division in football the NFC East, plus since they finished in 2nd place get to play Baltimore & Jacksonville this season, which is a lot tougher than Houston & Denver last season.

I think the Jets lose some of those close games that they won last year. I think they fall just short of the playoffs in 2011.

Fantasy Spin: Dustin Keller, not Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards led the team in receptions last year. I think Keller is going to have an even better year this year. TE is very deep, so if you don't get one of the elite 3, there is nothing wrong with drafting Keller late as your starter.

Miami Dolphins 5-11
I may catch some crap for this, but too bad. I think Miami is in a world of trouble this season. They have an absolutely brutal schedule in the beginning of the year with two homes games vs New England & Houston. Then they are on the road at Cleveland & San Diego before their bye week. I will be surprised to see the Dolphins at .500 by their bye week. When they come off their bye they have a Monday nighter at the NY Jets. The middle of the schedule is somewhat favorable, but then come crunch time 3 of their last 4 versus Philly,New England & NY Jets will spell doom for the fish.

The Dolphins have a very good defense that gets no attention, but defense alone won't win championships when your offense has major question marks, and that comes from their front office who apparently does not know what they are doing. Lets try and get Jim Harbaugh, and when we fail say oh we didn't want him all along. Tony is our man. Then a few months later, the same exact thing happens at QB when they were rumored to get Kyle Orton. Chad is out man. Today the Dolphins signed Larry Johnson. Obviously the Dolphins have figured out what the Saints have already figured out in regards to Reggie Bush, and for as much as I like Daniel Thomas, there has to be some sort of question mark if they signed a guy who couldn't get it done in Washington last year where they had no competition at the position whatsoever.

Fantasy Spin: Miami has stated that they plan on using Reggie Bush in the passing game more this year. If Bush can get 8-10 carries and 5-7 targets in the passing game then Bush could be a very sneaky low end RB2 or Util option this year.

Buffalo Bills 5-11
Sorry Buffalo, you missed out on the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Your consolation prize is Matt Barkley. One thing I like about Buffalo is that they always come to play. Buffalo lost 3 games in overtime last year, and 2 others by less then a TD.

They lost arguably one of their best offensive players Lee Evans to the Ravens, so Stevie Johnson is gonna have to step up and fend off double coverage. I'm not sure if he is good enough to be a #1 in this league, but we will find out this year. CJ Spiller is the wildcard for Buffalo, and most expect him to play a big part in this offense.

The Bills biggest weakness going into the offseason was on the d-line. They grabbed the best D-line prospect in the draft in Marcell Dareus, and they signed Shawne Merriman who has looked pretty good in pre-season. If the Bills can get a pass rush, they could sneak up on some people. Too many ifs though especially on offense at QB & WR, so I expect the Bills to finish in the cellar again.

Fantasy Spin: Honestly, there is not one player on Buffalo I am remotely targeting. Fred Jackson is getting drafted too early, and I can't buy into CJ Spiller just yet.

Dynasty - The risks of WR early

2011-08-18T18:52:00.000-07:00

There is nothing more challenging then rebuilding in a dynasty league. One position where you may want to steer clear of is WR. There are two great WR's in this years rookie class, AJ Green (Bengals) & Julio Jones (Falcons)

Green by many draft gurus was the best player available in this years draft. Green is a tremendous talent. Green may be the most talented WR to come into the draft since Calvin Johsnon, but his situation isn't exactly stellar with a rookie QB potentially starting in Andy Dalton. If you are expecting a Mike Williams kind of year from Green you will be disappointed.

Julio Jones the other top WR drafted goes to a great situation in Atlanta. Atlanta traded the world for him, so its not like he is going to sit on the bench and learn the ropes slowly. Jones will be thrown right into the mix. My main beef with Jones is that Atlanta has always been a run first offense. This might change in the future since Michael Turner is on the decline, but I don't think it will happen this year.

Lets take a look at the top 3 WR's in each class.

2010 - Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Dexter McCluster
2009 - Darrius Heyward-Bay, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin
2008 - Donnie Avery, Devin Thomas, Jordy Nelson
2007 - Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Dwayne Bowe
2006 - Santonio Holmes, Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss
2005 - Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams
2004 - Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams
2003 - Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson, Bryant Johnson
2002 - Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, Javon Walker
2001 - David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner

Breakdown

Elite (3) - Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson

Good (5) = Jeremy Maclin, Dwayne Bowe, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards & Roy Williams

Jury is Still out (2) Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant

Bust (20) - Including Javon Walker in this group since he had only 2 good seasons.

Your chance at Elite talent - 11%
Your chance at Good talent - 29%
Your chance at Epic Fail - 71%

Now lets switch over to RB's

2010 - CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best
2009 - Knoswhon Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells
2008 - Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart,Felix Jones
2007 - Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Kenny Irons
2006 - Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Deangelo Williams
2005 - Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams
2004 - Stephen Jackson, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones
2003 - Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, Musa Smith
2002 - William Green, TJ Duckett, Deshaun Foster
2001 - Ladanian Tomlinson, Deuce McAllister, Michael Bennett

Breakdown

Elite (4) - Adrian Peterson, Larry Johnson, Ladanian Tomlinson, Stephen Jackson

Good (5) - Deangelo Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Willis McGahee,Deuce McAllister

Bust (11) - Kenny Irons, Laurence Maroney, Reggie Bush, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, Musa Smith, William Green, TJ Duckett, Deshaun Foster, Michael Bennett, Cedric Benson.

Benson is a bust, because he was dropped by most owners after his Chicago days. Its too early to tell on some guys like McFadden (1 year wonder?), Donald Brown/Beanie Wells (injuries), so they are in no category.

Your chance at elite talent - 14%
Your chance at good talent - 32%
Your chance at a bust - 39%

Now finally a look at the QB's

2010 - Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen
2009 - Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008 - Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm
2007 - JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb
2006 - Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2005 - Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Aaron Rodgers
2004 - Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers
2003 - Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller
2002 - David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001 - Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Quincy Carter

Breakdown

Elite (4) Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, Phillip Rivers

Good (8) Matt Ryan, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler

Too Early (3) Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Kevin Kolb

Bust (13) Im counting Tebow. I'm not a believer.

Your chance at elite talent - 14%
Your chance at good talent - 43%
Your chance at a bust - 46%

Now of course this is one mans opinion on these players above, but the numbers are pretty overwhelming to me.

Thoughts?

14 team league - Draft Diary

2011-08-13T04:47:00.000-07:00

League: qb, 2 Rb, 2 wr, util, te, k, def

Well, I had my fantasy draft last night. I had the 11th pick which I wasn't too happy about. My plan was going to be take 2 elite WR's with my first two picks unless something crazy happened, and I think it did when Michael Vick fell into my lap at the 11th pick. It honestly was a big shock and really altered my draft plans.

I just missed on Roddy White in the 2nd round, but ended up with Hakeem Nicks as a good consolation prize.

In the third round I was looking at RB's, but some of the guys I was targeting in round 3 were scooped up already. Two elite TE's not named Antonio Gates were already off the board (Clark,Witten), and I missed out by 2 picks on Vincent Jackson who just kept on slipping and slipping. I ended up going with Antonio Gates who I think has great value in a 14 team league.

Running backs kept on going off the board before my 4th pick, and rather reach for a RB, I took the BPA route and I was really hoping that teams would fill out their rosters below me instead of going for their 3rd running back. I drafted Tampa WR Mike Williams. I love Williams especially with Freeman at QB who is probably the most underrated QB in the league.

Through 4 rounds I was without a RB, so it was business time. Mark Ingram, Addai, Benson were taken ahead of me in Round 5, so the pickens were slim. I ended up with Dolphins rookie RB Daniel Thomas. There is no one else there besides Reggie and the Dolphins like him, so I was happy to have him. He is more of a RB2, or flex, but on my team he will have to do at RB. I have used this pick up RB late strategy before.

In round 6, I was looking to fill out my roster with another RB. I am not a huge fan of Beanie Wells. He is as fragile as they come, and since the Cards trading Tim Hightower to the Skins then rookie RB Ryan Williams was my choice. Williams won't start right away, but he will get some reps and eventually get the gig.

In round 7, I am still looking at RB as I know I need to draft a few for bye weeks, since Williams & Thomas both have the same bye week. I go with Jonathan Stewart here. Stewart would have been in line to be the Panthers #1 back, but he still should get a lot of carries even with Deangelo Williams back on board for 2011.

In round 8, I was looking for a flex play. I ended up going with Braylon Edwards. It is a make or break year for Alex Smith for sure. Even if Smith doesn't pan out, I really don't see an option where Braylon isn't as good as he was last year when he was on the Jets.

In round 9, I was looking for another flex play, and ended up going with Bengals rookie wideout AJ Green. I like the QB situation more in Atlanta and Julio Jones was available, but the Bengals have a rag tag bunch of receivers and Green has been more then impressive in camp thus far.

In round 10, I thought about another flex play, but there was incredible value on the board here, and that is Giants QB Eli Manning. Manning should have never dropped this far, but he did. The main problem with Eli here for me was he had the same bye week as Vick. So this pick is really my Vick insurance. I will be happy starting Eli on a week to week basis if/when Vick gets hurt.

In round 11, I needed a bye week QB for Vick/Eli. I thought about not drafting one and then just picking up someone who is available on FA, but in a 14 team league where only 4 teams can carry a 3rd QB I thought it made sense to draft another one. I selected Vikings QB Donovan McNabb. McNabb definitely did not have the weapons last year that he does now, so hopefully he can resurrect his career like Favre did there.

In round 12, I was looking at upside. I took Cowboys RB Tashard Choice. Choice is my 4th RB on my roster. I think Felix is more of a change of pace, 3rd down back so Choice should have plenty of opportunity in Dallas. I am just hoping that their rookie Demarco Murray isn't in the picture.

In round 13, This was my final pick before I rounded out my roster with Kicker & Defense, so I took a huge gamble on Terrell Owens. Owens is currently unsigned, but you have to imagine he lands on a roster this year. T.O was having a great year in Cincy before getting hurt. A team that could really use T.O is the Houston Texans. Jacoby Jones/Kevin Walter have not cut it for the past few years. T.O/Andre Johnson combo to go along with Schaub/Foster would clearly put them ahead of Indy for best offense in the AFC South. It definitely is hard drafting this early in the preseason, but it is what it is I guess.

In round 14 & 15, I rounded out my team with the Chargers defense, and David Buehler from the Cowboys.

Should be a fun season.

Jets Big Winners on Day 1

2011-07-27T18:22:00.000-07:00

The NY Jets are the Day 1 winners in my book. Re-signing Santonio Holmes was huge. If the Jets want to contend for a Super Bowl title they need Mark Sanchez to develop into a big time QB. Failing to make this move I think would have been costly. There were other big names out there, but I think Holmes is the best of the bunch long term, and already has a good rapport with Sanchez.

Holmes was clearly priority #1, but #1A is to try and land the top FA available Nnamdi Asomugha. The Jets would have the best two shut down corners in the game, and that is what you need when you have an attacking defense like Rex Ryan. If the Jets sign Nnamdi it will be hard to imagine another team representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The Jets still need to address their #2 WR spot, and hopefully resign one of their most underrated players WR Brad Smith. I don't think the Jets will go hard after Braylon Edwards, so they are more likely to sign someone that will require a lot less money.

Randy Moss has been rumored to the Jets, and I think that would be a great move. Moss checked out when Tennessee picked him up. It was kind of sad watching him on the field. I honestly don't think he meshed very well with Jeff Fisher. One thing that Fisher was known for is playing favorites. If you were in Fisher's doghouse you were not coming out. Fisher kept players well past their prime. Punter Craig Hentrich was probably the worst of them all, but you could even say the same thing about Kerry Collins. Who knows where Vince Young and that franchise would be if Fisher didn't have an ego. Young mentioned many times that he did not feel comfortable playing, knowing that if he had one mistake that he would get pulled. Moss was never given a chance to succeed in Tennessee under these same circumstances and, I think in NY under Rex Ryan and with those veterans, Moss could be the missing link.

Jets fans, Do you want Randy Moss?

Mets Firesale Begins

2011-07-13T17:59:00.000-07:00

It's a sad day to be a Mets fan. The team that was built to contend for a World Series title is going to be broken up. K-rod was the first of many Mets who will likely be dealt before this seasons trade deadline approaches. I don't think anyone is safe, even Mr. Met has to look over his shoulder as the Mets trim payroll.

K-Rod leaving was inevitable as he was due a nice 17.5 million if he reached 55 games pitched, instead it's just 3.5 million in which the Brewers will be taking "Substantial amount" of it. It is a great fit for the Brewers who have the best bats in the National League already, and they get K-rod at a big discount to help their pitching. The players to be named later in the deal are reported to be C level minor leaguers. This was more of a salary dump for the Mets then a deal to help them in the future.

The next big name to be dealt will be Carlos Beltran. I discussed Beltran earlier this week on possible destinations. Beltran is a free agent at the end of the year. Beltran will certainly be dealt before the deadline. I think the Mets may sell Beltran cheap as well in a deal where they can save more money over getting equal value in return.

The biggest name of all is Jose Reyes. If the Mets elect to keep Reyes and let him walk as a free agent they will only get two compensation picks for him. If they move him at the deadline they could get a couple of top prospects in return. Mets GM Sandy Alderson has been on the record recently saying that it is very unlikely that the Mets will deal Reyes this year. I think you trade Reyes now. By the time this team rebuilds his number one asset his legs will be history. Reyes is not replaceable don't get me wrong, but this team is not winning a World Series within the next few years, so re-tool.

This is how I think it will play out with Reyes. Mets trim payroll with a bunch of moves near the deadline. The front office will say they want to keep Reyes and make him an offer. Reyes will receive a better offer and sign elsewhere. Mets front office will try to make Reyes the bad guy and say he was greedy and that they tried their best to resign him. This guy isn't buying it.

Other players that have been mentioned to be dealt are Jason Isringhausen, Mike Pelfrey, Angel Pagan & lefty Tim Byrdak. The only player of the bunch I would like to see the Mets resign is Pagan. Pelfrey walks at the end of the year as I don't think the Mets will resign him for more then he made this year. (4 million) I think there is a good chance that half of these players are in new unis at the end of the year.

The firesale won't end this year, as I fully expect it to continue this off-season and into next season mainly with Johan Santana. Santana has two more years left on his contract at $25 million per, and an option in 2014.

Jason Bay unfortunately will not be traded as his $16 mil price tag is way too high. Bay is under contract for two more long years.

If you think this is ugly now, wait until next year when the face of the franchise David Wright could walk. The Reyes or Wright conversations that many Mets fans have been debating all year, could be all for not as both may not be on this team in 2013. I'd be happy to keep one long term, as both are probably not an option.

So when will the Mets be relevant again?

Red Sox or Yankees for Beltran?

2011-07-11T17:41:00.000-07:00

Boston's main problem has been pitching this year, but I don't feel there is enough good options out there come trade deadline that can really help Boston.

Obviously, anything is better then John Lackey, but I really don't see any aces available like last year with Cliff Lee. To get a decent pitcher like an Anibel Sanchez or Paul Maholm I think the asking price would be too much. You have to pay for pitching. Lets be honest, the Mets are out of it now, and they are going to be looking to trim payroll, so Beltran & K-Rod are both gone.

The answer to me is Carlos Beltran. Give me Beckett & Lester pitching in a 4 out of 7 series and give me the Red Sox lineup with Beltran and I think they are the team to beat. Fixing their glaring problem in RF internally or buy trading for another lesser quality player like a Ryan Ludwick is a mistake. Beltran comes with a pretty big price tag as a rental player but the Red Sox aren't afraid to spend money especially when it means keeping up with the Yankees.

Boston's RF numbers this season

.220 AVG, 9 HR, 39 RBI, 36 Runs, .302 OBP

Carlos Beltran #'s

.285 AVG, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 52 Runs, .377 OBP

You add Beltran to a team who already leads the league in almost every offensive category and look out American League. Plus, you have to imagine that Carl Crawford will break out of his funk in the 2nd half.

Look at this potential lineup.

CF - Ellsbury
2b - Pedroia
1b - Gonzalez
3b - Youkilis
DH - Ortiz
RF - Beltran
LF - Crawford
C - Varitek
SS - Scutaro

Don't count out the Yankees for sweeping in and stealing Beltran either. NY's pitching has been very good this year, and they are about to get healthy with Phil Hughes & Rafael Soriano both slated back soon. I do think they could use another arm to go along with CC as 1-2 Boston is better, but I think they may stand pat with pitching and elect to go elsewhere for help.

The Yankees say they are not interested in Carlos Beltran, but that may just be a smoke screen to make a deal for him, or worse news for the Red Sox fellow teammate Jose Reyes. I don't expect Reyes to be traded, but you never know with the Yankees. The Yankees don't exactly have an ideal situation in RF or at DH. Nick Swisher is a fan favorite for sure in NY and he does actually lead the team in OBP despite only having a .249 AVG. Swisher is definitely not as good defensively as Beltran.

Yankees current stats

RF - .248 AVG, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 41 Runs
DH - .220 AVG, 12 HR, 35 RBI, 28 Runs

Potential Yankees Lineup with Beltran

SS - Jeter
CF - Granderson
1B - Teixeira
3B - Arod
2B - Cano
RF - Beltran
DH - Swisher
C - Martin
LF - Gardner

There are some other possible destinations as well for Beltran, but I expect the two heavy hitters to make the most noise.

What team will Beltran be collecting his World Series ring?